Zelenskyy Warns Against Possible Reversal of US Support

Facts

• In an exclusive interview with the Associated Press, Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned on Tuesday that the potential shift of political forces in Washington — particularly in light of the 2024 elections — could have drastic consequences for Ukraine if support for intervention in the country were to run dry.¹
• Zelenskyy did not mention the current Republican frontrunners — former Pres. Donald Trump or Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — by name, but said: "The United States really understands that if they stop helping us, we will not win." Both Trump and DeSantis have made statements questioning long-term support for Ukraine, though DeSantis walked back his comments after criticism from elements within his party.¹
• Zelenskyy also outlined why he viewed the continued defense of the Donetsk city of Bakhmut important, despite large military losses and claims from some analysts that it's not strategically significant. He said that, should Moscow's forces seize the city, Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin would "sell this victory to the West, to his society, to China, to Iran. If he will feel some blood — smell that we are weak — he will push, push, push."¹
• The Ukrainian leader also said losing Bakhmut would have a political cost, including prompting members of the international community and his own population to call for settlement talks with Russia. "Our society will feel tired," Zelenskyy said, adding: "Our society will push me to have [to] compromise with them."¹
• In its latest assessment, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US military think tank, said that pro-Russia forces have continued to gain ground in Bakhmut over the past week, stating: "ISW assesses that Russian forces have advanced into an additional five percent of Bakhmut in the last seven days and that they currently occupy roughly 65 percent of the city."²
• Elsewhere, Rafael Grossi, head of the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) made his second war-time visit to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant on Wednesday. Grossi held a meeting with Zelenskyy earlier in the week where he warned the situation at the plant remained "very dangerous," adding that he and his team were still negotiating a deal between Russia and Ukraine to secure a safe zone around the site.³

Sources: ¹Associated Press, ²Understandingwar, and ³Yahoo News.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by Responsible Statecraft. As of last month, an AP-NORC poll suggested that less than half of the US population supported providing US weapons to Ukraine. It was one of many indicators that public support is gradually eroding for all aspects of the Biden administration's Ukraine policy. Developing war weariness among the public is a commonly repeated trend, previously seen towards conflicts in South Korea, Vietnam, and Afghanistan. Pres. Biden should tread carefully, as electoral victory for the Democrats may soon rely on him reneging on his pledge to support Kyiv for 'as long as it takes.'
• Narrative B, as provided by Washington Post. Despite the shift in GOP attitudes concerning the conflict in Ukraine — which appears to indicate a veering towards unfettered isolationism — the 2024 election is a long way off, and there is very little the Trump-DeSantis factions can currently do to affect military spending. In addition, Western intervention can continue even without support from inside the White House, through initiatives such as the IMF's recently announced $16B loan package to help rebuild the Ukrainian economy. US and Western support for Kyiv will remain stalwart.

Predictions