Zelenskyy: Ukraine Ready to Launch Counteroffensive

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Facts

  • Ukraine is ready to launch its long-awaited counteroffensive to recapture territory taken by Russia, Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal published Saturday, saying, "We strongly believe that we will succeed."1
  • The comments echo those of other senior Ukrainian officials — including Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, and Maj. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukrainian intelligence — who last week also said Ukraine's counteroffensive was ready to start, though little in the way of battlefield pushes have yet to be seen.2
  • In separate comments on the counteroffensive, Zelenskyy told a Friday press conference in Estonia: "This isn’t a movie. It’s difficult for me to say how you will see the counteroffensive... The result of the counteroffensive is the liberation of our territories. When that happens, you'll know it's happening."3
  • Meanwhile, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán on Friday urged Ukraine to desist from the idea of a counteroffensive and instead seek a ceasefire, warning an assault could result in a "bloodbath" for Ukraine.4
  • Ukraine's foreign ministry issued a statement reacting to Orbán's comments stating that negotiations are only possible after the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine. "Ceasefire without fulfilling this condition will lead to freezing the status quo, will give Russia the opportunity to regroup, amass forces, and resort to a new wave of aggression," it said.5
  • The comments were similar in tone to those of US Sec. of State Antony Blinken, who on Friday told an audience in Finland: "A ceasefire that simply freezes current lines in place and enables [Russian Pres.] Putin to consolidate control over the territory he's seized, and then rest, re-arm, and re-attack — that is not a just and lasting peace."6

Sources: 1Wall Street Journal, 2ITN, 3Ukrainska Pravda, 4Euro Weekly News, 5UKRINFORM, and 6US Embassy.

Narratives

  • Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Guardian. After months of planning and preparation — with Kyiv reportedly building up 60K forces for this counteroffensive — the 15-month war is now poised to enter one of its most critical phases. However, exactly where Ukraine will launch this counteroffensive remains to be seen.
  • Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Spectator (UK). Talk of Ukraine's counteroffensive has been hyped up for months. The problem is that Ukraine could end up paying the price for such a successful PR campaign: If the counteroffensive doesn't live up to expectations, Western support could dry up, and Kyiv could be forced to the negotiating table.
  • Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by TASS. The West's pushing of Ukraine to launch this counteroffensive despite the likely catastrophic consequences for its country is yet another indication of how the West wants to inflict damage on Russia without consideration for the damage it will do to Ukraine.

Predictions