Zelenskyy Travels to Poland Amid Farmers' Dispute on Ukrainian Grain

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Facts

• Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy traveled to Poland on Wednesday amid a dispute among local farmers who say the lifting of tariffs on Ukrainian grain has flooded the local market, driving down the prices of Polish equivalents. Neighboring Poland has typically been one of Ukraine's staunchest backers since the war began, however, Polish farmers threatened to 'spoil' Zelenskyy's visit as anger over the issue mounted.¹
• As Zelenskyy made his way to Warsaw, Polish agriculture minister Henryk Kowalczyk resigned from his post, citing the European Commission's decision to extend duty-free imports of Ukrainian grain until June 2024. 'As it is clear that this demand [to introduce tariffs] will not be met by the European Commission at this point, I decided to resign from the post of agriculture minister,' he said.²
• Ahead of Zelenskyy's meeting with Polish Pres. Andrzej Duda and Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, the latter confirmed the trio would discuss the grain issue. 'During talks with Pres. Zelenskyy,' Morawiecki said, 'we will certainly discuss Ukrainian grain and various agricultural products, because we want any trade with Ukraine not to destabilize our market.'³
• Meanwhile, after meeting with Zelenskyy and traveling to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) last week, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Rafael Grossi travelled to Russia on Wednesday where he'll continue negotiations concerning the creation of a safe zone around the ZNPP. Russian officials said a Ukrainian drone crashed near the ZNPP before the talks with Grossi were set to get underway.⁴
• In the meantime, French Pres. Emmanuel Macron and European Commission Pres. Ursula von der Leyen arrived in Beijing for three days of talks with Chinese officials, including Pres. Xi Jinping. The agenda will focus on the Ukraine war as well as attempts to repair French trade relations with Beijing.⁵
• Elsewhere, after Finland joined the NATO military alliance on Tuesday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov described the move as an 'escalation' and an 'encroachment on Russia’s security and national interests.' He stated: 'Naturally, this forces us to take countermeasures to ensure our own tactical and strategic security.'⁶

Sources: ¹Guardian, ²Yahoo news, ³Zawya, ⁴Saltwire, ⁵Dw.com and ⁶The moscow times.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Associated press. Poland has been one of Ukraine's biggest backers since Russia invaded, and Zelenskyy's trip is a show of gratitude to the country — particularly as it has taken in the lion's share of Ukrainian refugees. More than 1.5M Ukrainians have registered with the Polish government since the war began, and this relationship between close-knit allies should not be overshadowed by a minor trade dispute.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Guardian. Despite Poland's support for Ukraine, Polish farmers are right to be angry over Zelenskyy's visit. The policies allowing Ukrainian grain to be sent to Poland without tariffs have left local farmers to bear the brunt of the financial burden and are making their livelihoods unsustainable.

Predictions