Zelenskyy Falls Short in Bid for NATO Membership

Facts

• At NATO's annual summit in Lithuania on Tuesday, despite last-minute attempts from Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the alliance's 31 members released a final communique that neither secured Ukraine's invitation to NATO nor established a firm timetable or clear conditions for its eventual membership.¹
• The summit communique said that while "Ukraine's future is in NATO," the alliance would only "extend an invitation to Ukraine" when Kyiv had completed certain "democratic and security sector reforms." According to reports, the language reflected concerns from the US and Germany that if Ukraine was permitted to join NATO while the war with Russia was ongoing, NATO — by definition — would be at war with the Russian Federation.¹
• At a speech later on Tuesday, Zelenskyy said that he still had faith in NATO, but that he would "like this faith to become confidence — confidence in the decisions that we deserve, all of us, every soldier, every citizen, every mother, every child. Is that too much to ask?"²
• Nonetheless, despite the rebuff, during a joint press conference with Zelenskyy on Wednesday, NATO Secretary Gen. Jens Stoltenberg announced a three-part package of measures that would bring Ukraine closer to the alliance.³
• This includes the establishment of the NATO-Ukraine Council — a forum where NATO and Ukraine can hold crisis talks "as equals" — in addition to a multi-year program that fully transitions Ukraine's armed forces from Soviet-era weapons to NATO equivalents. Finally, NATO removed the requirement for Ukraine to submit a Membership Action Plan. "This will change Ukraine's membership path from a two-step process to a one-step process," Stoltenberg said.³
• Addressing the press conference, Zelenskyy said it would have been ideal if there had been an invitation for Kyiv to join the alliance, but said that it was "understandable that Ukraine cannot join Nato [sic] when at war."⁴

Sources: ¹Guardian (a), ²Sky News, ³NATO, and ⁴Guardian (b).

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by CNN. While NATO will do everything in its power to help Ukraine defend itself from Russian aggression, the alliance simply cannot invite Ukraine to be a member at this stage. Doing so would bring the United States and NATO into direct conflict with Russia. Ukraine needs to have a successful counteroffensive, secure a ceasefire, and then its entry into NATO can proceed.
• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by TASS. This latest NATO summit in Lithuania continued to demonstrate the anti-Russian attitude of the US-led Atlantic Alliance. Not only does NATO openly describe Russia as its primary threat, but continues to pile further military resources on Russia's borders. Then, NATO has the gall to continue blaming Russia for the outbreak of this conflict — a historical inaccuracy to say the least.

Predictions