Zelenskyy, Armed Forces Give Contrasting Statements on Russian Plane Crash

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Facts

• Following Wednesday's crash of a Russian military transport plane in the Belgorod Region — believed to have killed all 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war, alongside nine Russian cabin crew and security staff, on board — Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy said it was necessary to establish all the facts and that Ukraine would insist on an international investigation.¹
• 'We need to establish all the exact facts,' Zelenskyy said during his nightly address. 'As much as possible, given that the plane crash occurred on Russian territory, which is beyond our control.'¹
• He added he has spoken with the Commander-in-Chief and the General Staff about the use of the Air Force, with the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine to clarify the situation about the prisoners of war, and with the Security Service of Ukraine to investigate the circumstances of the plane going down. He further said the foreign minister was tasked with keeping international partners updated. 'Our state will insist on an international investigation.'²
• However, earlier in the day, Ukraine's General Staff of the Armed Forces released a statement on the incident that appeared to contradict Zelenskyy. While it did not claim responsibility for the plane going down, it said that military transport planes such as the Il-76 aircraft are frequently used by Russia to transport weapons used in Ukraine.³
• 'With this in mind,' the statement read, 'the Armed Forces of Ukraine will continue to take measures to destroy means of delivery and control the airspace to eliminate the terrorist threat, including on the Belgorod-Kharkiv front.'³
• Meanwhile, Russia's Defense Ministry, which has blamed Ukraine for the plane going down, said on Thursday that it had recovered both black boxes from the crash site. 'According to preliminary data, both flight recorders are intact enough to be decoded,' an emergency services source told the Russian news outlet TASS. 'On Friday, they will arrive [in Moscow] on a special flight for delivery to a Defense Ministry lab for decoding.'⁴

Sources: ¹Ukrainska Pravda (a), ²President, ³Ukrainska Pravda (b) and ⁴TASS.

Narratives

• Pro-Ukraine narrative, as provided by Ukrainska Pravda. While Russia is predictably rushing to conclusions and is already using this event to toy with the feelings of Ukrainian society, the Ukrainian government is taking all the steps necessary to find out exactly what happened with the plane going down. Kyiv will demand an international investigation so that all facts can be established.
• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by TASS. While a Russian investigation to establish the facts is ongoing, Ukraine's Armed Forces have already indirectly suggested they are responsible for the plane going down, saying that it will 'continue to destroy' future flights in the Belgorod region. This was a reprehensible crime and Kyiv is the primary suspect.

Predictions