Zelenskyy: 'Absurd' if Ukraine Not Offered NATO Membership

Facts

• As a two-day NATO summit kicked off in the Lithuanian capital of Vilnius on Tuesday, Ukrainian Pres. Zelenskyy said it would be "absurd" if Ukraine was not given membership to the military alliance — claiming that as long as uncertainty over the question remained, Russia would have "motivation to continue its terror."¹
• Zelenskyy's condemnation comes after US Pres. Biden ruled out Ukraine's immediate entry to NATO over the weekend, stating that for an application to be considered, the war with Russia must first be over.²
• On Tuesday, Jens Stoltenberg, the NATO Secretary Gen., and Jake Sullivan, the US National Security Adviser, both seemingly attempted to soften the blow of Biden's announcement — with both stating that Ukraine would receive a "positive" signal on its membership bid at the summit, including the formation of a new Ukraine-NATO Council. However, according to reports, the moves will still fall short of a set timeline for when Ukraine can join.³
• According to sources who spoke to the Financial Times, NATO leaders have been preparing a carefully hedged communique that, in its current draft, states NATO will "extend an invitation" to Ukraine to join the alliance when "allies agree and conditions are met." The final communique is expected to be released at some point over the next two days.⁴
• In his statement, Zelenskyy hit out at this language being drafted without first consulting with Ukrainian officials. He also criticized the text's ambiguity about when Ukraine can join NATO. "It seems there is no readiness neither to invite Ukraine to NATO nor to make it a member of the alliance," Zelenskyy said.⁵
• Elsewhere, as the summit commenced, France's Emmanuel Macron announced that Paris will supply Ukraine with long-range cruise missiles. The move follows suit with Britain who committed to supplying Ukraine with the same missiles last month. Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov criticized the decision, stating it will not affect what Russia calls its "special military operation," adding that it will only increase the suffering for Ukraine.⁶

Sources: ¹Interfax, ²CNN, ³The Straits Times, ⁴FT, ⁵Daily Sabah, and ⁶Al Arabiya English.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Politico. This is a vital NATO summit for Ukraine. Not only does the alliance need to provide a clear road map to Ukraine's future membership of NATO, it must provide Ukraine with everything it needs so that it wins this war and reestablishes full control over its internationally recognized 1991 borders. This should include the delivery of Army Tactical Missile System weapons.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Guardian. Although Putin may look weakened following the failed Wagner revolt, this key NATO summit is a time for mature statesmanship. The shifting goalposts on weapons show just how much the war has escalated over 16 months. Now's the time for NATO to realize that its security lies in a settlement with Russia, not doubling down on more weapons and war.

Predictions