Yemen: Al-Qaida Branch Announces Death of Leader

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Facts

• Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) released a video announcing the death of its leader Khalid Batarfi on Monday. The terrorist group has claimed responsibility for attacks in France and the US in 2015 and 2019, which killed 17 people and three people, respectively.¹
• Commenting on Batarfi's death, Ibrahim Al-Qosi, a senior Sudanese AQAP leader, did not explain how he died, only expressing his 'heartfelt condolences and sincere regret' over his death. He added that Saad bin Atef al-Awlaki had been appointed as Batarfi's successor.²
• Batarfi left for Afghanistan in 1999 and fought alongside the Taliban in 2001 before joining AQAP in 2010 to lead forces in the takeover of Yemen's Abyan province as the Emir of Abyan, according to the US. The US designated him a global terrorist in 2018.³
• Born in Saudi Arabia, Batarfi — believed to be in his early 40s when he died — succeeded Qassim al-Rimi in 2020, who was killed by a drone strike ordered by then US Pres. Donald Trump. Washington had put a bounty of $5M on al-Batarfi's head.⁴
• According to the SITE Intelligence Group, the Sunni group's new leader, al-Awlaki, last appeared in a video published in February 2023. The US has a $6M bounty on him for having 'publicly called for attacks against the United States and its allies.'⁵
• A recent UN report estimates the number of active AQAP fighters and passive members at 3K to 4K, noting that despite its decline, AQAP 'remains the most effective terrorist group in Yemen' with plans to operate across the region and beyond.⁶

Sources: ¹BBC News, ²New York Times, ³Rewardsforjustice, ⁴timesofisrael.com, ⁵Al Jazeera and ⁶The New Arab.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by New York Times. Although AQAP continues to pose a serious threat, its ability to carry out attacks outside of Yemen has diminished due to effective US countermeasures. Like Batarfi, his successor is also calling for attacks against the US, and the terrorists might exploit the destabilization of Yemen and the region — fueled by the attacks of the Houthis on the Red Sea — to recruit and rebuild. Only if the US continues to take decisive action can it prevent AQAP from restoring its relevance within the jihadist movement.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Responsible Statecraft. The death of Batarfi has brought al-Qaida back into the headlines and needs to be placed in a broader context. The fact that AQAP was able to become the most powerful al-Qaida branch in the first place is primarily due to the US-backed war of the Saudi-led coalition against the Houthis. The resulting destabilization of Yemen provided the ideal breeding ground for the spread of the Sunni terrorists and declared enemies of the Houthis. That the US is now bombing Yemen is likely to backfire again and bolster both the Houthis and AQAP.

Predictions