WSJ Poll: Trump Leads DeSantis in GOP Presidential Field

Facts

• Former Pres. Donald Trump has taken the lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in a hypothetical GOP presidential nomination race, a new Wall Street Journal poll finds.¹
• The poll, released on Friday, shows that DeSantis has dropped 27% since December.²
• DeSantis’s previous 14-point advantage at the end of last year has fallen to a 13-point deficit, and he now trails Trump 51% to 38% among likely Republican and Republican-leaning Independent primary voters in a hypothetical race.³
• DeSantis hasn't officially announced his intention to run for President in 2024, but many expect him to launch a campaign sometime next month, after the end of Florida's legislative session.⁴
• So far, Trump has reportedly collected 67 endorsements for the Republican nomination, including from 57 members of Congress, while DeSantis has four. Historically, early endorsements by elected party officials can predict who will win a presidential nomination.⁵
• Trump launched his third White House campaign in November. His status as GOP front-runner, some political analysts say, has seemingly been solidified in recent polling.⁴

Sources: ¹Wall Street Journal, ²Guardian, ³POLITICO, ⁴FOX News, and ⁵Reuters.

Narratives

• Pro-Trump narrative, as provided by FOX News. Trump's popularity has surged in the polls recently. In fact, he has successfully cashed in on the controversy of his recent indictment in March, with his campaign raising millions of dollars. As much as critics may hope for his political downfall, he doesn't appear to be going anywhere anytime soon.
• Republican narrative, as provided by Reuters. While DeSantis has fallen behind in the polls, he still has a lot of time left to course correct — he hasn't even officially launched a presidential bid yet. Trump was somewhat weakened when many of the candidates he endorsed in the November midterm elections were defeated by Democrats. DeSantis is a promising alternative to Trump and may win over the "Never Trumpers" both in and outside the Republican party.

Predictions

Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?

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