West African Leaders Plan For Military Intervention in Niger

Facts

• The Economic Community of West African States' (ECOWAS) commissioner for political affairs, Abdel-Fatau Musah, stated on Friday that the 15-nation bloc has "worked out" plans for a possible military intervention in Niger in response to last week's coup.¹
• ECOWAS gave leaders of Niger's military coup a deadline to step down and reinstate the country's elected President Mohamed Bazoum by Sunday. Niger's junta denounced any external interference and promised retaliation.²
• ECOWAS has imposed economic sanctions against Niger, suspending transactions and travel with countries within the bloc as well as freezing the country's regional central bank assets.³
• Mali and Burkina Faso — also led by military juntas — have supported Niger's military coup, denounced sanctions by ECOWAS, and stated that any intervention would be seen as a declaration of war against both states.⁴
• Despite attempts to avoid conflict and reach a peaceful agreement, a diplomatic team sent by ECOWAS left Niger on Friday without success. The team was scheduled to meet both coup leader Abdourahamane Tchani as well as Bazoum, who remains under house arrest.⁵
• Coup leaders have reportedly asked for assistance from the Russian mercenary group Wagner during a visit to Mali.⁶

Sources: ¹Al Jazeera, ²Reuters, ³Foreign Policy, ⁴Africa News, ⁵DW, and ⁶Independent.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by The Guardian. The regional response to the coup in Niger is crucial, and ECOWAS faces a major test. A tough response is both the best way for democracy to be restored in Niger. If this doesn't occur, the Sahel region may forever be lost to forces that only seek to do harm. While it's wise that intervention should be led by Western powers, backing and support of potential military action remains crucial to Niger's future.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Tamtaminfo. The threat of intervention by ECOWAS and the West has only created greater unity in Niger, increasing a sense of patriotism against the desires of colonial and external powers. Sanctions and threats against Niger are illegal, illegitimate, and inhumane — only doing damage to the people of the country rather than the military it wishes to target.

Predictions