Von der Leyen to Seek Second Term as EC Head

Facts

• On Monday, during the Christian Democratic Union's (CDU) party conference in Berlin, Ursula von der Leyen declared her intention to run for a second, five-year term as president of the European Commission (EC).¹
• On Saturday, Von der Layen had indicated her decision at the Munich Security Conference, claiming that, if she were to run again, she would emphasize increasing defense spending and appointing a defense commissioner.²
• By declaring her candidacy, she will start a four-month election campaign that may include Estonia's prime minister, Kaja Kallas. Alongside support from the CDU, von der Leyen is also expected to receive the support of the European People's Party.³
• After being chosen for the position in 2019, von der Leyen became the first female head of the 32K-employee EU executive, leading the bloc through the COVID pandemic and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine while aspiring to make the EU climate-neutral by 2050.⁴
• EU leaders choose the commission's presidency based on the results of the European elections, with the winning party holding the de facto convention of nominating the executive.⁵

Sources: ¹Guardian, ²Euronews (a), ³ERR, ⁴Yahoo News and ⁵Euronews (b).

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Associated Press. Ursula von der Leyen was unanimously chosen by the CDU to remain as the executive commission's candidate. This decision sends a strong message to Europe, as the European Peoples Party (EPP), which is dominated by Christian Democrats, is anticipated to maintain its majority in the legislature following the European elections that take place in June. It's unlikely that any other candidate will be able to realistically challenge von der Leyen for the job.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by POLITICO. Ursula von der Leyen was confirmed by the EU Parliament and selected by EU leaders in 2019, lacking any form of democratic legitimacy. In the upcoming election, the European people will once again not vote on the Commission's executive. Rather, the political party with the highest percentage of votes will choose the presidency. Von der Leyen's path to remain commissioner is a glaring illustration of the EU's democratic shortcomings.

Predictions