Venezuelan Voters Reject ICJ Jurisdiction in Dispute with Guyana

Facts

• Venezuela announced on Monday that a national referendum held at the weekend had shown that there is public support for the seizure of the Guyanese territory of Essequibo. Over 10.4M ballots were reportedly cast in Sunday's vote.¹
• Venezuela's referendum asked voters five questions in total, including whether they rejected "by all means" the 1899 arbitral decision that declared that the area belonged to the then-British colony, as well as whether they supported a 1966 agreement that effectively nullified the arbitration "as the only valid legal instrument" to reach a solution.²
• Venezuela's government has claimed that over 95% of voters approved the state's claim over Essequibo — a 61.6K-square-mile area compromising of approximately two thirds of Guyana. Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro described the result as an "overwhelming victory."³
• On Friday, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ordered Venezuela to "refrain" from "taking any action" which would "modify" the current status of Essequibo. Commenting before the referendum, ICJ Court President Joan E. Donoghue claimed that there was a "real and imminent risk" to Guyana before the court could make a decision on the territory's sovereignty.⁴
• The territorial dispute has escalated over the past decade, following two major oil discoveries that made Guyana's reserves greater than those of Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. While Guyana has the world's biggest reserves of crude per capita, Venezuela sits on the largest proven reserves overall.⁵
• The news comes as the Brazilian Defense Ministry announced last Wednesday that the country has deployed additional military resources to its northern border, intensifying defensive actions amid mounting tensions between Guyana and Venezuela.⁶

Sources: ¹Al Jazeera, ²Associated Press, ³BBC News, ⁴ABC News, ⁵France 24 and ⁶Reuters.

Narratives

• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Últimas Noticias. The free and democratic referendum on Essequibo is not threat to democracy but rather a mass exercise of democratic rights in defense of Venezuelan sovereignty that will force the colony of Guyana back to the negotiating table. The stolen oil-rich Essequibo region has long had its resources exploited by the US, which negotiates oil and gas deals as if they were its own. It's time for this to come to an end.
• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Americas Quarterly. It's outrageous that Venezuela arrogated to itself the right to hold a referendum to annex a territory awarded to the then-British territory, Guyana, in 1899 — the 1966 Geneva Agreement specifies that it's up to the UN Secretary-General to choose how to settle the territorial dispute related to Essequibo. Given that the matter has already been referred to the ICJ, Venezuela is clearly seeking to usurp the court's jurisdiction.

Predictions