Venezuela to Hold Military Drills After UK Sends Warship to Guyana

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Facts

  • Venezuelan Pres. Nicolás Maduro on Thursday ordered the country's armed forces to hold military drills involving 5.6K soldiers off the coast of Essequibo in response to the UK's decision to send a warship to neighboring Guyana.1
  • Maduro argued that the 'defensive' exercises are being launched as the vessel's deployment was 'practically a military threat from London' and violated the 'spirit' of a recent agreement between Venezuela and Guyana to peacefully settle their territorial dispute over the oil-rich Essequibo region.2
  • Last week, the UK's defense ministry announced that it would deploy the patrol ship HMS Trent to Guyana — a British ally and former colony — 'as part of a series of engagements in the region during her Atlantic patrol task deployment.'3
  • Condemning the arrival of HMS Trent as a 'hostile provocation' and a 'direct threat to peace,' the Venezuelan government called on Guyana to take immediate measures to remove the vessel. Caracas also warned Georgetown to 'refrain from further involving military powers in the territorial dispute.'4
  • On Dec. 3, Caracas claimed that 95% of voters in a non-binding referendum had backed the country's decades-old territorial claim to the Guyana-governed Essequibo region. However, the Maduro government argues that the referendum isn't a pretext for an invasion or annexation of the territory.5
  • Later, Maduro and his Guyanese counterpart, Mohamed Irfaan Ali, discussed the dispute in St. Vincent and the Grenadines and agreed not to make any threats or use force. Following the initial meeting, the parties decided to continue the dialogue and avoid any moves that could worsen bilateral tensions.6

Sources: 1reuters.com, 2BBC News, 3Guardian, 4La Prensa Latina Media, 5France 24 and 6EL PAÍS English.

Narratives

  • Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by EL PAÍS English. The Maduro regime knows very well that the deployment of the British warship is a routine measure and poses absolutely no military threat to Venezuela. Instead, Caracas is stoking tensions by blatantly seeking to annex Guyana's oil-rich Essequibo region illegally. Maduro is prepared to politically instrumentalize the dispute with his South American neighbor to suspend the 2024 presidential elections if necessary. The US eased sanctions against Venezuela in return for Maduro holding free and competitive elections in 2024, which the Venezuelan strongman could very well lose unless he declares a state of emergency beforehand.
  • Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by teleSUR English. The British warship's deployment is a blatant military provocation coordinated with the US and a shameless interference attempt to secure access to Essequibo's enormous oil and gas resources. It's also well known that Washington seeks to establish a military base in Essequibo as a bridgehead for its aggression against resource-rich Venezuela after failing to overthrow Maduro. By allowing the militarization of the situation, Guyana is jeopardizing the recent bilateral agreement to refrain from steps that could lead to new tensions. However, Venezuela is prepared to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity by military means if necessary.

Predictions