Venezuela: Government Agrees to Hold Elections in 2024

Facts

• On Tuesday, the Venezuelan government and a faction of the opposition agreed to hold presidential elections in the second half of next year following the resumption of talks after a nearly year-long hiatus.¹
• The agreement sets out 12 electoral conditions, including updating the electoral registry, enhancing balanced media coverage, and providing electoral guarantees for candidates who comply with the law and the constitution.²
• Both sides also agreed to allow international observers, including an EU delegation, to monitor the elections in which the Venezuelan Pres. Nicolás Maduro is widely expected to run for re-election.³
• Following the Norwegian-brokered talks in Barbados, the US, EU, Canada, and the UK released a joint statement stating the agreement was needed to advance 'an inclusive dialogue process and the restoration of democracy in Venezuela.'⁴
• The Maduro government and the US have allegedly reached a 'tentative agreement' that could pave the way for lifting US sanctions on Venezuela's oil sector if democratic elections are held in the country.⁵
• Meanwhile, Venezuela's opposition is holding a primary on Oct. 22 to elect the candidate to run against Maduro. The government has banned frontrunner María Corina Machado from running for office next year — a move reportedly condemned by Washington.⁶

Sources: ¹Reuters, ²Venezuelanalysis, ³FT, ⁴DW, ⁵Doha News and ⁶Washington Post.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by Telesur English. The agreement is a significant success for Venezuela's future as a sovereign state. The fact that both sides agreed on political and electoral guarantees is also a victory for the Maduro government, as these provide the framework for peaceful elections under the Venezuelan constitution and without Western interference. However, what was achieved in Barbados is only the first step toward a much broader pact. Hopefully, the deal will provide Venezuela with long-term stability.
• Narrative B, as provided by El País English. The agreement is a glimmer of hope for Venezuela, but it remains to be seen whether Maduro will follow through on the agreed-upon electoral process — including establishing a procedure to lift the bans that prevent his primary opponents from running. Given Venezuela's deep social and economic crisis, which the repressive regime is responsible for, let's hope Maduro doesn't try to hold onto power again through rigged elections — despite international observers. The international community must remain vigilant for the sake of Venezuela's future.

Predictions