US-Saudi Talks Begin Amid Reports of Middle East Plan

Facts

• US national security adviser Jake Sullivan held talks with Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman in Jeddah on Thursday.¹
• The White House said that the meeting centered on "bilateral and regional matters" including initiatives "for a more peaceful, secure, prosperous and stable Middle East." The meeting also coincides with an ongoing effort by the Biden admin. to normalize affairs between Saudi Arabia and Israel — although no mention of Saudi-Israeli relations was mentioned in the post-meeting brief-out.²
• Official Saudi media said that the two sides "discussed the Saudi-U.S. strategic relations and ways to enhance them in various fields, in addition to the latest regional and international developments of mutual concern."³
• The meeting comes a month after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken traveled to the Kingdom to explore normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia. During that visit, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan said that normalization with Israel would have "limited benefits" for the Saudi people without "finding a pathway to peace for the Palestinian people."³
• The Kingdom has said it won’t officially recognize Israel before a resolution to the decades-long Israeli-Palestinian conflict, with the Saudis historically advocating for the creation of a Palestinian state in the West Bank, east Jerusalem, and Gaza.⁴
• US officials have been hopeful of a potential deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia following the Trump-era agreements between Israel and the nations of Morocco, Sudan, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates.⁵

Sources: ¹Guardian, ²Al Jazeera, ³NBC, ⁴Associated Press, and ⁵Reuters.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Associated Press. With two high-level diplomatic meetings in recent months, both the US and Saudi Arabia have demonstrated a commitment to diplomatic progress. Former Pres. Trump had success in similar agreements, and Biden has the respect to make a true diplomatic breakthrough to further the security for the region and the globe at large.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Guardian. Any possible US-brokered deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel would be time-consuming, difficult, complex, and politically farfetched. The Saudis would likely prefer Trump as an arbiter, Republicans wouldn't want to support Biden, and Democrats disagree with the Kingdom's poor human rights record. It is unlikely that the US has the political capital to make this breakthrough happen anytime soon.

Predictions