US Warns China Against Arming Russia

Facts

• As US officials report China is considering supplying the Russian military with artillery and ammunition for its war in Ukraine, US Pres. Biden's admin. is warning China that there would be serious consequences if it provided military assistance.¹
• This comes as Kyiv's top general visited the front-line town of Bakhmut — where soldiers are holding out against constant Russian attacks, and Ukraine prepares for a counter-offensive with advanced Western weapons including battle tanks.²
• As China has neither confirmed nor denied intentions to aid Moscow — reportedly including drones — US CIA Director William Burns said Sunday the agency is 'confident that the Chinese leadership is considering the provision of lethal equipment.'³
• Russia has refused to respond to the allegations. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Medvedev suggested that continued arms supply to Kyiv risks a global nuclear catastrophe.⁴
• China on Friday also laid out a 12-point peace plan to avoid nuclear escalation, end attacks on civilians, and promote peace talks. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, 'We are paying a great deal of attention to the plan of our Chinese friends.'⁵
• Russia has reportedly made few advances in its attempt to take control of the eastern Donbas region — even though its forces have been reinforced by conscripts and reservists.²

Sources: ¹CNN, ²The straits times, ³India today, ⁴Reuters and ⁵Guardian.

Narratives

• Pro-China narrative, as provided by Global times. Since the Ukraine war began over a year ago, China has continually emphasized its neutrality and urged a peaceful end to this conflict. As the war rages on for longer than the West may have expected, the US is now looking to scapegoat the PRC as a country that has prolonged the conflict when it very well knows that NATO and the Pentagon are the instigators. The West needs to shift the blame for the hundreds of thousands of deaths it has caused.
• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by New York Post. As Chinese Pres. Xi Jinping has watched Ukraine defend itself tremendously against the far more powerful Russian military, the PRC has likely been sobered to the reality of what happens when nations choose authoritarianism over the rules-based democratic order. China should be very careful in its dealings with Moscow, as any lethal military aid to Putin's invaders could dangerously strain already tense geopolitical tensions.

Predictions