US to Resume Offensive Weapons Sales With Saudi Arabia

Facts

• Offensive weapon sales from the US to Saudi Arabia are to resume, according to the US State Department, ending a three-year suspension over human rights violations in the Yemen war.^[1]
• Department officials said on Monday that weapons sales will return 'in regular order with appropriate congressional notification and consultation.'^[2]
• Since Saudi Arabia has reportedly met certain stipulations, the ban is being lifted on some air-to-ground munition. Future sales will reportedly be considered case-by-case.^[3]
• The Yemen conflict ended in 2022 with a UN-mediated truce. Since then, there've been no Saudi airstrikes in the country and cross-border attacks have largely stopped.^[4]
• The State Department has emphasized that the lifting of the ban was not linked to broader geopolitical issues like Gaza or the normalization of Israel-Saudi ties.^[3]

Sources: ^[1]Barrons, ^[2]The Defense Post, ^[3]CNN and ^[4]Voanews.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by FDD. The revival of US arms sales to Saudi Arabia will ensure regional stability and maintain Washington's strategic influence in the Middle East. The Arab kingdom faces increasing security threats, particularly from Iran, and is losing confidence in US protection, which is driving it closer to China at a time when the US itself is looking to counter Beijing. The resumption of US arms sales will, therefore, safeguard multiple US interests in the region.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Timesofisrael. The US is looking to normalize Saudi Arabian relations with Israel. The desired outcome, however, is unlikely because the Saudis insist such normalization is dependent on a two-state solution to the Palestine problem. While this may be thought of as a diplomatic step towards peace, Saudi Arabia's problematic human rights track record remains. Providing it with offensive weapons may only cause more violence.

Predictions