US to End Anti-IS Group Operation in Iraq

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Facts

  • The US Department of State and the Iraqi government have announced a two-phase transition plan to end the Global Coalition to Defeat Islamic State group (IS) operations in Iraq by Sept. 2025 and in Syria a year later.[1][2]
  • According to senior US officials, this isn't a withdrawal but a transition into an expanded bilateral security partnership. However, details on how many American troops will leave Iraq as part of each phase haven't been revealed.[3][4]
  • The Associated Press, citing Iraqi officials, has reported that troops stationed close to the Baghdad International Airport and in the Ain al-Asad airbase in western Iraq will be relocated to Erbil in Iraqi Kurdistan after the US 2024 election.[4]
  • This comes after months of talks, which included Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani and other high-ranking officials from both sides. During these talks, the Pentagon reportedly pushed for a three-year transition period.[5][6][7]
  • American forces were redeployed to Iraq in 2014 to fight IS, with the combat mission officially ending in 2021 and troops stationed in the country shifting to an advisory role.[7]
  • Previously, Sudani had said that US troops — estimated at 2.5K in Iraq and 900 in Syria — claimed that the IS no longer poses a threat despite the US Central Command warning that its attacks this year could double those claimed in 2023.[6][8][5]

Sources: [1]US Department of State (a), [2]US Department of Defense, [3]US Department of State (b), [4]Associated Press, [5]Voice of America, [6]Wsj, [7]Al Jazeera and [8]Bloomberg.

Narratives

  • Narrative A, as provided by United States Institute of Peace and The Washington Institute. This is a move in the right direction now that the threat of IS in Iraq has successfully been contained. The just-announced orderly transition into an enduring bilateral strategic partnership opens a new era in US-Iraq relations, one that will go beyond security. Given the current instability in the Middle East, maintaining positive ties with Baghdad is crucial to US interests.
  • Narrative B, as provided by Washington Post and Washington Examiner. This transition plan would be great news if the mission were indeed accomplished. The mission is not complete, however, and leaving Iraq, as things stand, could have disastrous consequences. Such a premature departure would send a message of weakness that is likely to encourage Iran and catalyze the resurgence of the so-called Islamic State group, worsening the Middle East crisis.
  • Narrative C, as provided by Time and Responsible Statecraft. As usual, the national security establishment is fearmongering about a potential US withdrawal — even if it will be no withdrawal at all, but a conditions-based transition that could extend the mission for years to come. US interests would be best served by not risking the lives of American troops and letting regional actors keep IS in check.

Predictions