US Think Tank: Russia Continues to Make Gains in Bakhmut

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Facts

  • On Monday, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US military think tank, confirmed Russian advances in the city of Bakhmut after Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Russian mercenary force Wagner PMC, claimed to have captured its center and raised the Russian flag over its city hall on Sunday night.1
  • This echoed Denis Pushilin, head of the pro-Russia Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) — which is fighting alongside Wagner — who said pro-Russia forces have since extended their gains in Bakhmut, claiming they have reached close to the city's main railway station.2
  • Meanwhile, in the early hours of Tuesday, Russia launched a drone attack on Ukraine. According to Ukrainian officials, 13 of 17 drones were shot down over the regions of Odesa and Mykolaiv, with one drone striking a business in Odesa, causing a fire that was extinguished by morning. There were no reports of civilian casualties.3
  • Elsewhere, lawyers for Evan Gershkovich, the Wall Street Journal reporter facing espionage charges in Russia, have filed an appeal against the decision to hold him in pre-trial detention, a spokesman for the Moscow district court said on Monday. He faces up to 20 years in prison if convicted.4
  • Meanwhile, Darya Trepova, the 26-year-old accused of blowing up a café in St Petersburg on Sunday — killing military blogger Vladlen Tatarsky and reportedly injuring at least 42 — was charged with terrorism and remanded to pre-trial detention on Tuesday.5
  • This came as Maria Lvova-Belova, the Russian commissioner for children's rights accused by the International Criminal Court (ICC) of illegally deporting children out of Ukraine alongside Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin, gave a press conference denying the allegations, saying the commission always acted in the best interests of the children in question.6

Sources: 1Understandingwar, 2Newsbeezer, 3Ukrainska pravda, 4Guardian, 5Evening standard and 6Msn.

Narratives

  • Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by Tass. Russia continues to make gains in Bakhmut, with all Ukrainian supply routes in and out of the city under the control of artillery fire. It's only a matter of time before Russian forces claim complete control over Donetsk city.
  • Anti-Russia narrative, as provided by Us news . Fierce fighting has already been going on in Bakhmut for months, and even if Russia prevails, it will have lost so many men and so much equipment that the result could hardly be celebrated. A Moscow victory in the region might be a symbolic gain but would provide little strategic benefit in the wider conflict.

Predictions