US Presidential Election 2024 Overview

Facts

• OVERVIEW: On Nov. 5, US voters will cast their votes for the next president. The major candidates are Donald Trump (the Republican nominee) and Kamala Harris (the Democratic nominee). Other candidates include Jill Stein (Green Party), Chase Oliver (Libertarian), and Cornel West (independent). Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (independent) suspended his campaign in August and endorsed Trump, though he will remain on the ballot in some states. As a running mate, Trump selected JD Vance, RFK Jr. chose Nicole Shanahan, and Harris picked Tim Walz. Pres. Joe Biden withdrew from the race in July 2024 and endorsed Harris.^{[1][2][3][4][5][6]}
• QUALIFICATIONS: Article II of the US Constitution outlines three qualifications to hold the office of the presidency: being a natural-born US citizen who is at least 35 years old and has resided in the US for at least 14 years. Voters in some states had petitioned courts claiming that the 14th Amendment disqualified Trump from holding the presidency, alleging the Jan. 6 riot constituted an insurrection supported by Trump. SCOTUS rejected this in Trump v. Anderson.^[7][8]
• CANDIDATE SELECTION: Political parties can choose how to nominate candidates, with the Democrats and Republicans using a primary and caucus system. While procedures vary, parties hold state-by-state contests where voters or party members select delegates who pledge to vote for the winner at the nominating convention. Trump was nominated handily with over 2K delegates, while Harris was secured the nomination unopposed after Biden's withdrawal.^[9][10][11]
• ELECTORAL PROCESS: Presidents are elected indirectly via the Electoral College. When voters go to the polls, they vote for a slate of electors who have pledged to cast their electoral votes for that candidate if they win the statewide popular vote — with Nebraska and Maine assigning some of the votes proportionally. There are 538 electoral votes up for grabs, which are allotted to states based on the number of their representatives in Congress plus two Senators, with a majority of 270 votes needed to win.^[12][13]
• BALLOT ACCESSING & POLLING: While Harris and Trump will be on the ballot nationwide, Kennedy, as well as West, Stein, and Oliver, will appear on ballots in many, but not all states. Before suspending his campaign, Kennedy was confirmed to be on the ballot in 10 states from which he has sought to withdraw (seven 'battleground' plus three he also considers competitive), with three rejecting his efforts to have his name removed. As of Sept. 24, Harris leads Trump 47% to 40% per a Reuters/Ipsos poll and by 48.3% to 45.8% per 538.^{[14][15][16][17][6][18][19]}
• IMPORTANT DATES: Those planning to vote by mail must apply for an absentee ballot and cast their votes before their state's deadline. After the election on Nov. 5, the electoral college will vote at their respective state capitals on Dec. 17 before Congress counts the votes and declares the winner on Jan. 6, 2025. The president-elect will then take the Oath of Office at noon on Jan. 20, 2025, and officially begin their term.^[20][21]

Sources: ^[1]BBC News, ^[2]NBC, ^[3]Ballotpedia (a), ^[4]New York Times (a), ^[5]X, ^[6]CBS, ^[7]Constitution, ^[8]Supremecourt, ^[9]EAC, ^[10]270toWin.com, ^[11]Verity (a), ^[12]National Archives (a), ^[13]U.S. Vote Foundation, ^[14]The Hill, ^[15]Ballotpedia (b), ^[16]Verity (b), ^[17]New York Times (b), ^[18]Reuters, ^[19]FiveThirtyEight, ^[20]Vote.org and ^[21]National Archives (b).

Narratives

• Democratic narrative, as provided by New York Times and New York Times. This election is perhaps the most pivotal in American history, as a convicted felon and insurrectionist is out to reclaim the presidency. His agenda will be even more extreme than in his first term, as he exploits popular discontent to lead the country down a dark and undemocratic path. At the ballot box, voters must support the candidate promising positive change, as Kamala Harris has a real plan to unite the country and finish the impressive work that Pres. Biden started on issues such as the economy and foreign policy.
• Republican narrative, as provided by Daily Wire. Once the hysteria from the liberal media is put aside, the choice for America is clear: four more years of a weaker and poorer America under the Democrats or four years of a president who left the country better than he found it. The facts don't lie: America was richer, safer, and freer under Trump, as much as it might displease his most vocal haters. The Democrats have failed at home and abroad, and when the chips are down voters will elect Trump, the man who has proven himself to be a competent and courageous leader.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Newsweek. America is tired of the status quo from the two-party system, which thrives on stoking fear and division in the population. As the media descends into tabloid-level negative coverage of the candidates, the real issues facing this country — such as war, corruption, and our crumbling infrastructure — are ignored. Nearly half of all voters consider themselves independent and are unrepresented by the Democrat-GOP duopoly. Third party candidates, such as RFK Jr., will continue to shift the conversation, with or without the permission of the establishment.

Predictions