US Pres. Biden Announces Re-Election Bid

Facts

• US Pres. Joe Biden on Tuesday officially announced his candidacy for re-election in 2024 with a three-minute video, coming on the fourth anniversary of declaring his candidacy for the White House in 2019 and promising to heal the "soul of the nation."¹
• The announcement video included footage from the Jan. 6 riots and abortion protests, criticism of "MAGA Republicans," and a list of achievements during his time in the White House, adding that he wants to "finish this job."²
• In response to the video, in which Biden also confirmed that current VP Kamala Harris would again be his 2024 running mate, former Pres. Donald Trump said that he looks forward to debating Biden, assuming that he wins the Republican primary.³
• Biden is expected to have a more straightforward route to the debate stage, as Biden leads his main Democratic contenders, including former candidate Marianne Williamson and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., in polling numbers.⁴
• In addition to contentious political issues, such as the nation's 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan, economic woes, and the war in Ukraine, many voters have expressed concern regarding Biden's age. He's currently the oldest US president in history and would be 86 at the end of a second term.⁵
• As an expectedly heated election moves closer, Congress is almost perfectly divided between Democrats and Republicans, with Democrats having a slim majority in the Senate and Republicans leading the House.⁶

Sources: ¹Associated Press, ²Daily Mail, ³FOX News, ⁴USA Today, ⁵Euronews, and ⁶POLITICO.

Narratives

• Republican narrative, as provided by New York Post. The American people don't want to see Joe Biden win a second term in the White House. Besides his dwindling mental capacity, Pres. Biden has made a series of horrendous mistakes that have seriously damaged the US. From shoddy domestic policies that have hurt the economy to throwing away millions of dollars via his catastrophic withdrawal from Afghanistan, Biden has been a terrible president and must be defeated in 2024.
• Democratic narrative, as provided by CNN. Though Biden may not be the best Democratic candidate in recent memory, he's a strong opponent who is essentially the only Democrat who can take on what will likely be a race against Donald Trump. As the Republican party slides toward extremism, the US needs a president who has defeated MAGA before. Indeed, 2024 will be another existential election for American democracy.

Predictions

Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants.

MetaculusCategories: Elections – U.S. – 2024 U.S. Elections Elections – U.S. – President on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}