US Prepares to Lift Ban on Sales of Offensive Weapons to Saudi Arabia

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Facts

  • US officials announced on Thursday that the Biden administration is getting ready to loosen restrictions on some arms shipments to Saudi Arabia. Officials attributed this change to the kingdom's recent peace negotiations with Yemen's Houthis in an effort to cement a truce.1
  • In 2021, US Pres. Joe Biden enforced the ban due to worries that US weapons were being used against civilians in Yemen, where a coalition led by Saudi Arabia is fighting the Iran-backed Houthis — resulting in mass casualties from the conflict, disease, and starvation.2
  • Saudi Arabia — the country that purchases the most weapons from the US — has been trying to lift the US offensive weapons ban, as it attempts to complete a peace agreement with the Houthis.3
  • The Houthis have garnered global attention recently after they fired drones and missiles at commercial ships in the Red Sea — disrupting international trade and forcing the world's largest shipping companies to divert their vessels from Yemen to pressure Israel to end its military campaign in Gaza.2
  • Speaking under anonymity, Saudi officials stated that if the conflict with the Houthis were to escalate, Saudi Arabia must be able to defend its southern border with Yemen. The officials suggested that the kingdom's other goal is to make the case that it needs to be ready to deal with rising regional tensions brought on by the ongoing Gaza conflict.1
  • Some legislators in the US House of Representatives may object to Biden's proposed policy change. Following Saudi Arabia's agreement to reduce its oil production along with that of Russia and other oil-producing countries, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee placed its own embargo on military sales to Saudi Arabia in October 2022.2

Sources: 1The New York Times, 2Deccan Herald and 3News Globe Online.

Narratives

  • Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by The New York Times. If the ongoing peace talks with the Houthi group in Yemen result in an end to the eight-year-old brutal conflict, then easing limitations on arms sales to Saudi Arabia could be a good thing. The geopolitical landscape would change with a peace deal, emphasizing the need to arm Saudi Arabia with weapons to protect itself against Iran, which is a rising regional power. As Saudi Arabia needs to re-arm itself along its southern border to be able to defend itself in the event that there are any future disputes with Houthis, it would also demonstrate to the kingdom that the US is a reliable strategic ally.
  • Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Human Rights Watch. President Biden pledged that human rights would be given first priority in US relations with Saudi Arabia. Human Rights Watch and other rights groups have recorded war crimes committed by Saudi Arabia and the UAE against Yemeni civilians since the start of the conflict in 2015. Removing the ban on offensive weapons to Saudi Arabia would be a step backward for the White House and a declaration to the international community that the US is not very concerned about human rights. Rather than easing sanctions, the Biden administration should push for the creation of an accountability body in the UN that would look into infractions and assist with any future prosecutions.

Predictions