US Pauses Weapons Delivery to Israel Over Rafah

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Facts

• US officials revealed on Tuesday that the Biden administration had halted the shipment of weapons to Israel reportedly over Israel's plan to attack Rafah in southern Gaza.¹
• The US paused a shipment of 1.8 2K-pound (907 kg) bombs and 1.7K 500lb (226kg) bombs last week, as Israel had not 'fully addressed' its concerns about humanitarian needs in Rafah.²
• It is also reportedly reassessing deliveries of 6.5K Joint Direct Attack Munitions, which transform freefall 'dumb bombs' into precision-guided weapons.³
• This is the first time since the Gaza war began that the US has made such a move. Over 1M displaced Palestinians have taken refuge in Rafah.⁴
• The US reportedly warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last week that it would openly oppose a Rafah assault and that such an operation would lead to a change in US policy.⁵
• Israel advanced into eastern Rafah on Monday despite Hamas agreeing to a cease-fire, with its forces capturing the Gaza-Egypt border crossing, a key aid route.⁶

Sources: ¹Washington Post, ²BBC News, ³Guardian, ⁴Timesofisrael.com, ⁵Axios and ⁶WSJ.com.

Narratives

• Pro-Israel narrative, as provided by Jerusalem Post. Israel has been warning Hamas about this attack for months now, and with Israeli hostages still in captivity, this limited operation is far from an overreaction. While critics claim Hamas' acceptance of a deal should bar Israel from invading, they're leaving out the fact that the deal they accepted was not the one agreed to by Israel. Hamas also launched a coordinated strike Sunday that killed four soldiers, proving it's still an active threat with no desire to disarm.
• Pro-Palestine narrative, as provided by Los Angeles Times. The pretext for Israel's attack on Rafah is supposedly to eliminate Hamas and its leadership. However, the extensive destruction and casualties in Gaza indicate broader retaliation by Israel. With tens of thousands of civilians killed and 80% of buildings destroyed in the north, civilians have fled to Rafah. Given Israel's consistent pattern of grievous and unnecessary harm towards Palestinian civilians, the US must halt any support that could make the situation worse.

Predictions