US Midterms: Voters Head to the Polls

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Facts

  • With all 435 seats in the House, one-third of the Senate, and 36 out of 50 state governors' offices up for grabs, Pres. Biden predicts Democrats will "surprise the living devil out of a lot of people," while Republicans aim to take back majorities in the House and Senate, and gain key new governorships, as voters headed to the polls on Tuesday.
  • According to the University of Florida's "US Elections Project," more than 41M votes have already been cast, either through mail-in ballots or early in-person polls. A Gallup poll also found that 54% of Democrats said they would vote early, compared with 32% of Republicans. Meanwhile, early exit poll data shows that abortion policy and inflation are the top issues driving voters to the polls.
  • Though every House seat is in contention, the non-partisan Cook Political Report says that only about 36 races are a toss-up. Analysts at the publication said, “Anything from a very narrow GOP majority to a Republican rout of more than 30 seats is well within the realm of possibility.”
  • Regarding the Senate, polling analytics website FiveThirtyEight gives Republicans a 59% chance of winning a majority. The site says the toss-up Senate races to watch are in Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, and New Hampshire.
  • Gubernatorial races in states Biden flipped blue in 2020 are also on the radar — including Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia. Pennsylvania, where Biden grew up, and the upper Midwest are thought to be crucial for the 2024 presidential campaign.
  • There were issues with some voting machines as election day began, namely in Maricopa County, Ariz. where 20% of polling stations reported tabulator malfunctions. However, officials said voters at those precincts can go to another location, drop their ballot in a physical, secure drop box, or wait for the machines to come back online, and that operations are "going well."

Sources: FOX News, Al Jazeera, Wall Street Journal, FiveThirtyEight, Newsbud, and Business Insider.

Narratives

  • Republican narrative, as provided by Townhall. Election day is a day when every American can use their vote to send a message to those in power. The message Americans will send today is that they still care about the Bill of Rights, freedom, and overall common sense — especially crime and inflation. An inevitable "red wave" will make the woke left despondent when the midterm results pour in.
  • Democratic narrative, as provided by NY Times.  The future of American democracy truly is on the line this election, and there's nothing wrong with framing it this way. MAGA Republicans have talked openly about what they'll do if they get back the majority, including stripping away voting, reproductive, and economic rights. Voting for Democrats means voting for Democracy and sustaining hard-fought gains.