US Midterms: Poll Shows Economic Jitters Are Boosting GOP

Facts

According to a new New York Times/Sienna College poll released Monday, 49% of likely voters said they'd vote for a Republican for Congress compared to 45% who said they'd vote for a Democrat.
The results are a shift from the same poll last month, which had Democrats in the lead by one percentage point. The GOP has since gained ground in key Senate races in Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin, as well as districts in Oregon and Rhode Island.
The economy and inflation are the primary reasons for this polling shift, with 44% of voters focused on the economy in October compared to 36% in July. This is a boon for Republicans, whom voters focused on the economy say they would vote for by a 2:1 ratio.
In a shift among crucial independent voters, the polling shows Republicans now lead by 10 points, compared to a 3-point Democratic lead in September. Among female independents, Republicans now lead by 18 points, compared to a 14-point lead for Democrats last month.
Biden also faces a declining approval rating, with the latest FiveThirtyEight poll putting his approval at 43% compared to 50% in July and August. 64% of people polled also say the country is headed in the wrong direction.
The polling data suggests that issues that Republicans have been stronger on are what voters are shifting their focus toward - including gas prices, stock market turbulence, crime, and immigration. Democrats, in contrast, have focused on guns, democracy, and abortion.

Democratic narrative, as provided by The Guardian. Voters are being duped by Republican claims. For example: Democrats are not soft on crime; bail reform hasn't lowered arrest rates; inflation came from COVID, not Biden; and the IRS isn't targeting the middle class - Biden is targeting the wealthy tax cheaters. The "hot button issues" are ones that Democrats have real solutions for.
Republican narrative, as provided by FOX News. The economic issues referenced in these polls - all of which resulted from high energy prices - began right when Biden took office. The Democrats controlled the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives over the past two years, and none of their policies have improved the lives of American families. This sentiment for change will be reflected in November.