US Midterms: Ariz. and Nev. Won't Finish Counting Ballots Until Next Week

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Facts

  • With around 570K ballots remaining to be counted in Arizona's midterm election and 50K left to go in Nevada, the fate of which party takes control of the Senate — as well as the Ariz. governor's race — likely won't be known until next week.
  • In the Arizona governor's race, Democrat Katie Hobbs held an extremely slim lead of 50.7% to 49.3% over Republican Kari Lake, with Hobbs having grown her lead after Thursday's results were added.
  • Most of Arizona's remaining totals come from Maricopa County, which has yet to start counting the more than 290K ballots dropped off on election day. The county's vote has already angered Republicans after about 17K votes were reportedly affected by machine mishaps on election day.
  • In Nevada, mail-in ballots are sent to all registered voters, which is why the count takes longer than in many other states. Analysts are keeping close tabs to Washoe County, the state's second-largest, for its potential pivotal role in the outcome.
  • Both parties in Arizona expect the mail-in ballots brought in person on election day to tighten the key races, with Republicans so far having done better with in-person votes due to their general distrust of the mail-in system.

Sources: Washington Post, Newsweek, New York Post, and New Yorker.

Narratives

  • Democratic narrative, as provided by Washington Post. Arizona and Nevada always take longer to count due to mail-in votes, and this year is no different. Even after 17K ballots were affected by machine problems, they were sent into secure drop-boxes and will be counted. Unscrupulous Republicans like Kari Lake are trying to instill election fraud fears in their supporters, which is an insult to poll workers who are working 14-hour shifts to count hundreds of thousands of ballots.
  • Republican narrative, as provided by Federalist. Democrats have ignored Americans' growing distrust in the electoral system so egregiously that they now preemptively announce ballot counting delays. Most developed countries, as well as large US states like Florida, have figured out how to conduct elections on election day. It should be no different in the swing states like Arizona and Nevada.