US Labor Report: 253k Jobs Added in April

Facts

• On Friday, the US Dept. of Labor released its monthly job report for April, as the economy beat expectations by recording a 53-year low 3.4% unemployment rate, with nonfarm jobs increasing by 253K — vastly outpacing the projected 180K.¹
• The low unemployment rate, however, was partially driven by the first decrease in labor participation since November, as 43K people exited the workforce and weren't factored in. Wages also rose at the fastest pace since July, which could be a blow to the Federal Reserve's (Fed) fight against inflation.²
• The report also noted that the government revised job growth numbers for February and March, showing that a total of 149K fewer jobs were added over the last two months than were initially reported. The new totals were 248K and 165K jobs added, respectively.³
• The business and professional services sector — which includes white-collar workers such as attorneys, accountants, and computer engineers — saw the greatest job growth at 43K. Healthcare also continued its fast growth, adding 40K new jobs.⁴
• Wall Street responded positively to the report as the S&P 500 rose 1.85% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1.65%. The market will be paying close attention to the Fed’s response after it raised interest rates by 0.25% again this week.⁵
• Pres. Joe Biden applauded April’s job growth and low unemployment while also warning that 780K Americans could be laid off if Congress doesn’t raise the debt ceiling and defaults on its debt. The GOP is calling for spending cuts in negotiations to raise the limit.⁶

Sources: ¹Reuters, ²Associated Press, ³FOX News, ⁴ABC News, ⁵Yahoo Finance, and ⁶CNBC.

Narratives

• Democratic narrative, as provided by MSNBC. The Biden economy continues to defy expectations and add jobs, culminating in the lowest unemployment rate since 1969. Fearmongers on the right have demonized the Biden admin. and predicted a recession for more than a year, and continue to be wrong. The economy has continued to improve, and Republicans have ignored all positive developments because the numbers show the Biden economy has performed much better than Trump’s.
• Republican narrative, as provided by The Heritage Foundation. It takes a very simple look under the hood to see that the economy is heading down a path toward recession and that the unemployment rate fails to tell even a fraction of the story. While the Biden admin. touts job growth, there are still 2M fewer people working compared to pre-pandemic rates, as government handouts have driven so many out of the workforce entirely. This doesn’t even include the persistent inflation that the Fed’s 10 consecutive rate hikes haven't been able to curtail.

Predictions

Will the US enter a recession before the following dates?

The aggregate of 332 Metaculus community forecasters was 20% on May 08, 2023.

MetaculusCategories: Economy – US on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}