US Market Added 236K Jobs in March

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Facts

  • US employers added 236K jobs in March, while the unemployment rate decreased to 3.5%, the Labor Department reported on Friday.1
  • By comparison, 504K jobs were added in January and 326K in February. March's numbers were 3K lower than forecast by economists, and the unemployment rate was down just slightly by 0.1% from 3.6% in February.2
  • Meanwhile, March also reportedly saw 480k Americans start job-seeking, with the labor force participation rate — people either with a job or searching for one — reaching 62.6%, the highest in three years.1
  • Economists are closely watching the latest job numbers to see whether they indicate that the economy is picking up steam or slowing down. Friday's report is the first major economic release for March, a month that saw Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank collapse.3
  • The US Federal Reserve has imposed nine interest rate hikes in the past year in an effort to slow growth enough to reduce inflation without causing a recession - a so-called 'soft landing.'4
  • The Feds will decide whether to continue raising interest rates or pause hikes at the next meeting on May 2-3. These March job numbers are the last the Feds will see before this meeting.5

Sources: 1Associated Press, 2Guardian, 3Axios, 4Cbc and 5Abc news.

Narratives

  • Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Deseret news. While job openings were slightly down in March compared to previous months, and just a few thousand off of what economists predicted, the US economy is still going strong. The numbers are solid and indicate the moves by the Fed over the past year to curb inflation without setting off a recession are working. As lead economist at Glassdoor, Daniel Zhao, told The Associated Press, the numbers from March make up a 'Goldilocks report.'
  • Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by New York Times. The US economy is likely headed for a recession, and it may be too late for the Fed to do anything about it. The labor market is weak, financial institutions are failing, and inflation isn't going anywhere. Banks keep talking about a soft landing, but the reality is the US is about to get hit with the opposite: a very hard landing. And the Fed's policies are squarely to blame.
  • Narrative C, as provided by CNN. For the average American, the reality of recent economic policies is dire. Seven in 10 say they think the economy is in poor shape and half of them say their own personal financial situation is worse now than it was a year ago. Whether jobs are up or down by a few thousand doesn't change the overall reality for those living it day to day.

Predictions