US: 206K Jobs Added, Unemployment Increases to 4.1% in June

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Facts

• The US Labor Department announced on Friday that the economy added 206K jobs in June, but also revised down job creation for April and May by a combined 111K. Unemployment increased from 4% to 4.1% last month, the highest rate since November 2021.¹
• The unemployment rate for teenagers was 12.1%; for adult women and men, it was 3.7% and 3.8%, respectively; and for Whites, Asians, Hispanics, and Blacks, it was 3.5%, 4.1%, 4.9%, and 6.3%, respectively.²
• Industries that hired in June were social assistance (34K workers), government (70K), and healthcare (49K), while among those that lost jobs were temporary help (-49K), professional and business services (-17K), and retail (-9K). Manufacturing showed 'little change.'²
• Hourly wages were up by 3.9% from a year prior, which is the smallest increase since 2021. However, the labor participation rate — which is the portion of working-age people whether employed or seeking a job — jumped to 62.6%³
• The average hourly wage rose by 10 cents to $35. Wage growth, which has slowed because of a post-pandemic return to work, is still higher than 3.5%, which is in line with the Federal Reserve's (Fed) 2% inflation target.¹
• The Fed, whose chairman Jerome Powell said earlier this week that inflation still needs to come down more, will meet in September for its next interest rate policy discussion.⁴

Sources: ¹USA Today, ²BLS, ³Wsj and ⁴FOX News.

Narratives

• Democratic narrative, as provided by CNN. These numbers paint a positive picture of the future. A remarkable amount of people have returned to work after COVID, and they're enjoying rising wages. Meanwhile, the Fed has used interest rate policies to cool the economy. Despite unstoppable global issues, labor participation under the Biden administration is strong and inflation is simultaneously trending downward.
• Republican narrative, as provided by Wsj. These numbers are nothing to brag about. Since Biden took office, inflation has gone up 20% and inflation-adjusted wages have gone down largely because of Democrats' unnecessary money printing after COVID. The economy's slight improvements haven't stopped voters from feeling the effects of inflation, so Biden must be held accountable.

Predictions