US, Japan, SKorea Step Up Actions on NKorea Cyber Threats

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Facts

  • White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan has said that the US, Japan, and South Korea have agreed to coordinate efforts and launch new trilateral initiatives to counter North Korea's threats in cyberspace, economic coercion, and space launches. 1
  • This follows the first meeting of the trilateral diplomatic cybersecurity working group established during the Camp David summit — between Pres. Joe Biden, South Korean Pres. Yoon Suk Yeol, and Japanese Prime Miniter Fumio Kishida in August — to counter Pyongyang's cyber operations. 2
  • Previously, the Seoul Metropolitan Police had alleged that North Korea-backed hacking group Andariel had stolen around 1.2TB of data from 14 South Korean organizations, including classified information on a new laser weapon system and key defense secrets. 3
  • The Democratic People's Republic of Korea is accused of resorting to "illicit cyber activities" as an important source of funds for its nuclear and missile development programs and using sophisticated techniques to steal more cryptocurrency in 2022 than any year previously. 4
  • During the talks in Seoul on Saturday, the three countries reaffirmed that North Korea has to "denuclearize and ban military cooperation" under UN Security Council resolutions. They also vowed to strengthen cooperation "to secure the international community's strict implementation". 5
  • North Korea's supreme leader, Kim Jong Un, has reportedly expanded his nuclear and missile programs and adopted a nuclear doctrine that allows the pre-emptive use of nuclear weapons, marking heightened tensions between the North and the South. 6

Sources: 1NBC News, 2NK News, 3Independent, 4 Nikkei Asia, 5 The Korea Herald, and 6AP News.

Narratives

  • Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by The Heritage Foundation. As North Korea's cyber operations pose a significant threat to international security and stability either through cyber warfare or cybercrime-funded nuclear weapons and missiles, it's a matter of urgency for the US and its allies to ramp up their cyber defenses and energetically respond to its cyberattacks. Otherwise, Pyongyang will continue to evade international sanctions.
  • Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by The Korea Times. While it has yet to be seen how the reclusive North Korean regime will respond to the announced efforts to address its military activities and alleged cybercrimes, this so-called new initiative isn't new at all. The meeting has merely reaffirmed a longstanding commitment to strong deterrence toward Pyongyang — an unbalanced move likely to have a limited effect as there's no openness for dialogue.
  • Nerd narrative, as provided by Metaculus. There's a 15% chance that there will be a full-scale war between North Korea and South Korea by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.