US House Speaker Meets With Taiwan's President

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Facts

  • On Wednesday, US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and other Republican and Democratic lawmakers met with Taiwanese Pres. Tsai Ing-wen at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in California. McCarthy, the third-highest ranking US leader, became the most senior US figure to meet with a leader of Taiwan on US soil in decades.1
  • In a joint public appearance with McCarthy after their meeting, Tsai talked of how US support “reassures the people of Taiwan” that they’re not alone and paraphrased the late US Pres. Ronald Reagan by saying, “To preserve peace, we must be strong.”2
  • Prior to the meeting, Beijing voiced its objection and threatened retaliation, with a spokesperson for its foreign ministry saying the country opposes “any form of official interaction and contact” between the US and Taiwan. It added that the ministry considers such an interaction a violation of the “One China” policy.3
  • The US acknowledges China’s claim to the self-governing democratic island of Taiwan as part of its country, but has never officially recognized this under the “One China” policy.4
  • Last week, Tsai made a stop in New York, where she spoke at the Hudson Institute think tank, on her way to meetings in the island's Central American diplomatic allies, Guatemala and Belize.5
  • Despite last year's visit to Taiwan by then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) prompting the PRC to launch live-fire military exercises, the island hasn't detected any changes to China’s usual military deployment around the Taiwan Strait so far. However, state media reported a three-day Chinese inspection operation in the Taiwan Strait on Thursday.6

Sources: 1Reuters, 2NPR Online News, 3FOX News, 4CNN, 5Al Jazeera, and 6Associated Press.

Narratives

  • Pro-China narrative, as provided by Global Times. China is fully within its rights to respond to any suspected violation of the “One China” policy as it sees fit. If Pres. Biden wants to engage in better relations with China, he’d be wise to ensure McCarthy tones down, or even cancels, his meeting with Tsai — otherwise, China’s military aircraft and naval vessels in the region might have to send Taiwan a message.
  • Anti-China narrative, as provided by National Review. China has no right to tell US officials who they can and can’t meet with, so the CCP propagandists should calm their saber rattling. China’s harassment of Taiwan is undignified, and the CCP already looks weak due to hints that its threatened response will be kept proportional to the relative profile of the meeting. If China doesn’t want trouble in the region, it shouldn’t cause it.

Predictions