US GDP Expands to 4.9% in 2-Year-Best

Facts

• Estimates from the US Commerce Department released on Thursday showed that, during the third quarter of 2023, the US' gross domestic product (GDP) rose at a 4.9% annual rate — its fastest pace in almost two years.¹
• In comparison, GDP rose by 2.1% in the second quarter, while consumer spending — which makes up over two-thirds of US economic activity — increased at a 0.8% rate, compared to the third quarter's 4%.²
• Commenting on the estimated GDP increase, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis claimed that the growth was a product of 'accelerations in consumer spending, private inventory investment, and federal government spending.'³
• These latest estimates come as short-term federal interest rates remain at 5.4%, the highest in 22 years. Wage and salary growth for quarter two — the most recent data on the subject — reportedly sat at 1.7% after accounting for inflation, the fastest quarterly rise in three years.⁴
• The Bureau of Economic Analysis also revealed that personal savings decreased in the third quarter, with an average of 3.8% of disposable income put away compared to 5.2% in the second quarter.⁵
• The report also showed that the US' annual inflation rate — excluding food and gas prices — decreased to 2.4% in the last quarter, compared to 3.7% in quarter two. Inflation reached a four-decade high of 9.1% in June of last year.⁶

Sources: ¹Associated Press, ²Reuters, ³BBC News, ⁴CBS, ⁵ABC News and ⁶PBS NewsHour.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by The Salt Lake Tribune. The US currently contains an unemployment low not seen since the 1960s, while inflation sits lower than many of its major economic competitors and allies. Despite negative rhetoric, it's fair to claim that the US economy has successfully rebounded from the depths of the COVID pandemic and is performing remarkably amid continued market pessimism.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Common Dreams. While many may claim that the US economy is doing well, polling and statistics still show that many Americans believe the opposite. This is largely blamed on a lack of trust in US institutions — which is certainly true — but it's also due to millions living in economic insecurity every day. The US economy, albeit in a great place for some, is still not adequate enough to provide stability for much of the American public.

Predictions