US Elections: Americans Head to the Polls

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Facts

  • American voters went to the polls Tuesday to decide whether the Democratic candidate, Vice Pres. Kamala Harris, or Republican candidate, former Pres. Donald Trump, will be elected US president. Voters are also casting their ballots in local and state elections.[1][2]
  • If Harris wins, she'll become the first woman, first Black woman, and first person of South Asian descent to become president. If Trump is re-elected, he will become the first president to serve non-consecutive terms since Grover Cleveland.[1][3]
  • The first states are expected to be called at around 7 pm EST, and based upon the 2020 election, Kentucky and Vermont are likely to be called first, though it took four days for Joe Biden's official victory declaration last time. Many states don't start counting mail-in ballots until Election Day, postponing their final counts.[4][5]
  • In addition to Harris and Trump, there are several independent and third-party candidates who could impact the outcome — including in the swing states of Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada.[6][7]
  • According to FiveThirtyEight's national polling average, Harris leads Trump 47.9%-47.8%, with the pair effectively tied in Pennsylvania and Nevada; Harris up by about a point in Michigan and Wisconsin; and Trump up by about a point in North Carolina and Georgia and two points in Arizona.[8]
  • Tuesday also sees voting for the Senate and the House of Representatives, as well as decisions over codifying abortion rights in several states. Democrats currently hold a 51-seat majority in the Senate, while Republicans currently hold an eight-seat advantage in the House with the chamber three shy of its maximum.[9][10][11]

Sources: [1]Associated Press, [2]NewsNation, [3]NPR Online News (a), [4]USA Today, [5]The Telegraph, [6]NPR Online News (b), [7]New York Post, [8]FiveThirtyEight, [9]New York Times, [10]House Press Gallery and [11]NPR Online News (c).

Narratives

  • Democratic narrative, as provided by Los Angeles Times and New York Times. A vote for Harris means a better future for America. When it comes to every issue, especially the economy, foreign policy, and immigration, Harris has promised to legislate from a position of consensus and reach across the political divide from conservatives to progressives. Trump, meanwhile, is a threat to the rule of law and the health of capitalism. To think that this man — who so clearly should be disqualified from office for being a convicted felon — remains so close to the presidency is a terrifying thought for the future of America.
  • Republican narrative, as provided by American Conservative and The Telegraph. It's easy to vote Trump over Harris when you compare track records. Trump's presidency brought a robust economy, while Harris has been part of an administration that created rampant inflation. While the Southern border was safe under Trump, Harris' administration let illegal migrants enter unfettered. Mainstream media may side with his opponents and have engaged in a consistent attempt to frame him as a fascist villain, but in the end, Trump was, and once again will be, a president for the American people.

Predictions