US Election Report: Independent Voter Turnout Surpassed Democrats, Tied Republicans

Facts

• According to exit polling data from Edison Research, self-proclaimed independent voters accounted for 34% of the 2024 US election turnout, which was the same share as Republican-identified voters but more than the 32% share of Democrats.^[1]
• This was the first time independents surpassed either of the two main parties in Edison's history of collecting such data, which it began doing in 2004.^[2]
• Edison found that nationally, 50% of independents — who tend to be more volatile in their political loyalties than registered party members — said they voted for Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris and 45% for her Republican opponent Donald Trump.^[2]
• The data was different when viewed through a state-by-state lens. For example, on Election Day, Trump was reportedly leading Harris 50%-44% among independents in the swing state of Pennsylvania, compared to his 44% among Pennsylvania independents in 2020.^[3]
• According to a 2018 Pew Research study, 38% of Americans said they were independent, compared to 31% identifying as Democrat and 26% as Republican. This year, 48% of Democrat-leaning independents voted, compared to 59% of registered Democrats; and 54% of Republican-leaning independents voted, compared to 61% of Republicans.^[2]

Sources: ^[1]Reuters, ^[2]Tovima.Com and ^[3]NBC.

Narratives

• Republican narrative, as provided by Townhall. Americans are marveling at how well Trump did among independents. One of the most incredible examples came out of Georgia, where it appears Trump led Harris by 11 points among that state's independents, compared to Joe Biden, who won those voters by nine points last election. Harris had four years to retain Biden's grip on these voters, but Trump defeated her handily.
• Democratic narrative, as provided by Vox. It's important to remember that throughout this entire campaign, Harris was forced to carry all of the baggage of Pres. Biden's presidency. When you look at Senate races, Democrats far outperformed Harris, which shows voters still liked Democrats but were tired of the current administration. Harris probably would've won if her ticket wasn't tied to the unpopular policies of her boss.
• Cynical narrative, as provided by The Fulcrum. While many genuine Trump and Harris supporters exist, there could have been alternative, and probably better, candidates if it weren't for the corrupt two-party system. With only two parties to choose from — and both parties diametrically opposed to each other — the US government and the society over which it governs is becoming dangerously divided. Additional parties would not only offer more choices but bring people together through debate.