US Election: Presidential Age, Race and Gender

Facts

• OVERVIEW: The dynamics of age, race, and gender have been prominent issues during the 2024 US presidential election, with data from Google showing a significant number of searches concerning the current candidates' characteristics at this stage of the electoral process than were seen within the last four election cycles.^{[1][2][3][4][5]}
• AGE: In order to run for election, presidential candidates must be at least 35 years old, while candidates for the Senate and House must be a minimum of 30 and 25, respectively. At 78 years old, Joe Biden became the oldest president at the time of his inauguration, surpassing his predecessor, Donald Trump, who was inaugurated at age 70. The median age of all US presidents at the first inauguration is 55.^[6][7][8]
• GENDER: Victoria Woodhull was the first woman to run for president in 1872, while the first woman to appear on a major party ballot was Geraldine Ferraro, who ran for vice president in 1984. In 2008, John McCain selected Sarah Palin as his running mate and in 2020 Kamala Harris was elected America's first female vice president. The first female presidential candidate on a major party ticket was Hillary Clinton in 2016, with Harris being the second such nominee.^{[9][10][11][12][13][14][15]}
• RACE: In 2008, Barack Obama was elected as the first Black president in US history. The first Black candidate for president is believed to be George Edwin Taylor, who won nearly 2K votes in the 1904 election on a minor party ticket. In 1929, Charles Curtis became the first Native American to serve in the role of vice president. If victorious in November, Kamala Harris would become the first president of Asian heritage and the second of Black heritage.^{[16][17][18][19][20]}
• POLLING DATA: According to Gallup, as of March 2024, 54% of US survey participants claimed they worried about race relations a great deal/fair amount, compared to 36% who responded only a little/not at all. Gallup also found that 60% of respondents were satisfied with the position of women in the US (66% men, 56% women), a decrease from 72% in 2008. Pew found in October 2023 that 79% of Americans support a maximum age limit for elected officials.^{[21][22][23][24]}
• VOTER DEMOGRAPHICS: According to the Pew Research Center, as of September 2024, 52% of men intend to vote for Trump, while 52% of women intend to vote for Harris. 56% of White voters support Trump, while a majority of Black (84%), Hispanic (57%), and Asian (61%) voters support Harris. Harris leads Trump with voters aged 18-29 (63%-34%) and 30-49 (50%-48%), while Trump leads Harris with 50-64s (54%-45%) and 65+ (52%-47%).^[25][26]

Sources: ^[1]BBC News, ^[2]ABC News, ^[3]Trends, ^[4]trends.google.com (a), ^[5]trends.google.com (b), ^[6]Statista, ^[7]Senate, ^[8]Pew Research Center (a), ^[9]CNN, ^[10]National Women's History Museum (a), ^[11]Archives of Women's Political Communication, ^[12]270toWin.com, ^[13]The White House, ^[14]Ballotpedia, ^[15]National Governors Association, ^[16]The Florida Times, ^[17]National Women's History Museum (b), ^[18]USA Today, ^[19]NPS, ^[20]WHHA (en, ^[21]Pew Research Center (b), ^[22]Pew Research Center (c), ^[23]Gallup.com (a), ^[24]Gallup.com (b), ^[25]CBS and ^[26]Pew Research Center (d).

Narratives

• Democratic narrative, as provided by Los Angeles Times and The National Interest. Electing Harris would be another positive step forward in healing tensions over race and gender in America. Trump has proven he's a leader who attacks women and makes racially loaded barbs. America must reject Trump's bigoted rhetoric and elect a candidate capable of uniting the country — leaving the politics of division behind.
• Republican narrative, as provided by City Journal and BostonGlobe.com. The liberal elite's hyper-fixation on identity politics has exacerbated division and hatred in America. A strange obsession with grouping individuals by their physical characteristics betrays the very melting pot ideals America was founded on. Trump is the only candidate truly in favor of a meritocracy and uniting the nation.

Predictions