US Election Issue: Ukraine

Facts

• OVERVIEW: On Feb. 24, 2022, Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin announced a 'special military operation' in Ukraine, drastically escalating the ongoing conflict rooted in the 2014 ousting of Ukrainian Pres. Viktor Yanukovych, and Russia's subsequent annexation of Crimea. The Biden admin. condemned Russia's actions as 'premeditated, unprovoked, and unjustified,' and has since provided $107B in direct aid to Ukraine, taken part in nearly 40 rounds of sanctions against Russia, and signed a 10-year Bilateral Security Agreement with Kyiv.^{[1][2][3][4][5]}
• CURRENT STATE: Russia currently occupies Crimea (since 2014), as well as areas in the Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Luhansk, Mykolayiv, and Zaporizhzhia regions, while Ukraine occupies part of Russia's Kursk region. According to the Congressional Research Service (CRS), the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) face 'obstacles to sustaining momentum.' The CRS also notes that Ukraine’s continued ability to fight the war has come into question. Some observers, it states, argue that the UAF may experience 'a deteriorating situation without sustained Western security assistance,' whilst others acknowledge that challenges exist for Ukraine regardless.^[6][7][8][9]
• UKRAINE AS AN ELECTION ISSUE: According to Gallup, as of March, 65% of Americans believed neither Russia nor Ukraine was winning the war. While 60% of Democrats said not enough is being done by the US, 57% of Republicans thought it's doing too much. In April, the Pew Research Center found that 24% thought support for Ukraine was insufficient, compared to 25% who said it was 'about right' and 31% who felt it was 'too much,' with opinions divided along party lines.^[10][11]
• DEMOCRATIC PARTY PLEDGES: The 2024 Democratic Party Platform affirms 'transatlantic support for Ukraine's reform efforts and its territorial integrity.' Vice Pres. and Democratic Party nominee Kamala Harris has emphasized the US' 'unwavering commitment to support the people of Ukraine,'' and stated that the Biden admin. shared Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy's desire for a 'just and lasting peace.'^[12][13]
• REPUBLICAN PARTY PLEDGES: The 2024 GOP Platform criticizes the Biden admin. as 'weak' on foreign policy and promises to 'strengthen alliances' by ensuring allies 'meet their obligations to invest' in collective defense. Trump's team asserts that European nations 'should be paying more of the cost of the conflict.' Trump has argued that Putin wouldn't have invaded Ukraine if he were president, claiming he could have the conflict 'settled' before January's inauguration.^[14][15][16]

Sources: ^[1]The White House (a), ^[2]State (a), ^[3]President of Russia, ^[4]Council on Foreign Relations, ^[5]S&P Global Market Intelligence, ^[6]Arcgis, ^[7]Crsreports (a), ^[8]Crsreports (b), ^[9]State (b), ^[10]Gallup.com, ^[11]Pew Research Center, ^[12]The White House (b), ^[13]Democrats, ^[14]CNN, ^[15]Associated Press and ^[16]The American Presidency Project.

Narratives

• Democratic narrative, as provided by MSNBC. Trump and JD Vance's push to reduce American influence in Europe, prioritizing a quick agreement over ensuring sustainable peace, is but one of many foreign policy moves that will have severe global ramifications. American isolationism will only embolden Putin and other right-wing populists to further undermine democracy. The GOP cannot be trusted to safeguard Ukraine's territorial integrity or US interests in Europe.
• Republican narrative, as provided by The Western Journal. Trump and the GOP are the victims of a coordinated media attack, with any attempts to question the financial burden on American taxpayers for Ukraine dismissed as pro-Kremlin propaganda by White House allies. In true autocratic fashion, the liberal left continues to censor and defame all those advocating for peace through an alternative, America-first solution. It's time to end endless wars and prioritize American interests.
• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Foreign Affairs and PBS NewsHour. Putin's invasion of Ukraine was an egregious violation of international law, and supporting Ukraine against this unprovoked Russian aggression is both a moral obligation and a geostrategic necessity. The US and Europe cannot afford to allow Russia to dominate Ukraine or undermine its sovereignty. This war is about more than just preserving Ukrainian democracy — it's about the future of a strong and united Europe.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Pressenza and Consortium News. The West provoked the invasion by continuously ignoring Russia's legitimate security concerns and breaking their promise not to expand NATO eastwards. Western political elites are now trying to rewrite history and compel the Ukrainian people to continue fighting an unwinnable war. The US, EU, and NATO's refusal to pursue peace and end their proxy war against a weakened Moscow shows that Ukraine is nothing but a sacrificial pawn in their imperial pursuits.

Predictions