US Election Issue: Iran
Facts
- OVERVIEW: Iran and the US have had a hostile relationship since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, when US-backed monarch Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi was overthrown and replaced by an Islamic Republic under Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. The Islamic Revolution also created tensions between Iran and US ally Saudi Arabia. Since the founding of the Islamic Republic, the US and Iran have been on opposing sides of regional conflicts including the Iran-Iraq War, the Syrian Civil War, and the Yemen conflict.[1][2]
- THE JCPOA: Iran, China, France, Russia, the UK, the US, and Germany agreed in 2015 to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). This aimed to monitor and restrict Iran's nuclear program for up to 15 years in exchange for lifting sanctions. The Trump admin. abandoned the deal in 2018 and reimposed all sanctions with new punitive measures. In 2020, the US killed Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Qassem Soleimani, prompting Iran to attack US military installations in Iraq.[3][4][5]
- CURRENT STATE: Talks to revive JCPOA began in April 2021 under the Biden admin. but stalled. Following Hamas' Oct. 7 attack on Israel, tensions between the US, Iran, and Israel have evolved into open hostilities. Hamas has received military support from Tehran, though Iran's involvement in Oct. 7 is unclear. Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Syria have also targeted US-deployed forces. The US, and some Gulf allies, helped defend Israel against two Iranian attacks in 2024 that were a response to Israeli assassinations.[4][6][7][8]
- IRAN AS AN ELECTION ISSUE: A Gallup poll from March 2024 found that 9% of Americans view Iran as the US' 'greatest enemy,' up from 2% in 2023. Iran was the third most common answer after China and Russia, respectively. By party affiliation, 11% of Republicans, 8% of independents, and 9% of Democrats viewed Iran as the US' 'greatest enemy.' In a separate poll, Gallup found that 77% of Americans believed that Iran developing a nuclear weapon was a critical threat to US 'vital interests.'[9][10]
- REPUBLICAN PARTY PLEDGES: The 2024 GOP platform, though not explicitly mentioning Iran, states it will 'prevent World War Three,' and promote Middle East peace. Former Pres. Donald Trump said Iran exports 'terror all over the world,' and that Tehran would not have attacked Israel if he were president. He suggested that Iran was connected to the two assassination attempts against him. Trump has also claimed that he would have negotiated with Iran to prevent it from acquiring a nuclear weapon.[11][12][13][14]
- DEMOCRATIC PARTY PLEDGES: The 2024 Democratic platform says that the Biden admin. has worked toward a 'durable peace' in the Middle East, and is committed to countering Iran and its allies. The platform also states that the US has an 'ironclad' commitment to Israel's defense, and seeks 'to counter Iranian aggression.' Vice Pres. Kamala Harris has said that Iran was America's greatest adversary, adding that Iran can never be allowed to become a nuclear power.[15][16]
Sources: [1]Council on Foreign Relations, [2]The Iran Primer, [3]Arms Control Association, [4]Cambridge, [5]JAG Reporter, [6]BBC News, [7]Al Jazeera, [8]voanews.com, [9]Gallup.com (a), [10]Gallup.com (b), [11]Donald J. Trump, [12]The American Presidency Project, [13]CBS, [14]The Hugh Hewitt Show, [15]Democrats and [16]FOX News.
Narratives
- Republican narrative, as provided by FOX News. Hamas' Oct. 7 terrorist attack on Israel should prove that the Democrats' policies of weakness and appeasement will only lead to further war and conflict. Had Trump been in office, Iran wouldn't have dared launch an attack against US allies. Indeed, Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon is an existential threat to US security, and Trump is more than willing to deter such actions through force. The US must use its strength to prevent terror states from holding entire regions hostage.
- Democratic narrative, as provided by New York Times. Trump's recklessness will make the situation in the Middle East worse. Trump's actions, specifically pulling out of the JCPOA, emboldened hardliners within the Iranian regime. If Iran had been more integrated into the global economy, it would have been more likely to prevent Hamas from launching its Oct. 7 terror attack. Harris and the Democrats view diplomacy as a more effective tool for countering American adversaries, but the party will defend Israel and its regional allies by force if necessary.
- Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Morningstaronline. Though Iran certainly has problematic governance, it's not in the US' interests to go to war with a country that's barely a regional power, let alone a global power. Israel has spent the last year trying to provoke Iran into a wider conflict with the goal of dragging the US into a pointless war. Tens of thousands have already been killed because the US has failed to reign in its so-called allies. American soldiers should not die to defend dictatorships and an intransigent Israeli regime.