US Election Issue: Israel-Gaza War

Facts

• OVERVIEW: On Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas — an Iran-backed Islamist organization that took control of Gaza in 2006 and is designated a terrorist organization by the US — attacked Israel, killing 1.2K, injuring 6.9K, and taking 250 hostages, including 10 Americans. In response, Pres. Joe Biden reaffirmed US support for Israel. His administration has authorized $100M in humanitarian aid for Palestinians, while Congress has passed at least $12.5B in military aid for Israel since the war began. The US has pledged to help negotiate a hostage release, and has proposed a three-phase roadmap to peace.^{[1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8]}
• CURRENT STATE: Casualties in Gaza have reached over 40K deaths and 92K wounded, according to the Gaza Health Ministry, with a UN-estimated 1.9M of Gaza's 2.1M people internally displaced. In addition to Israel's offensive in Gaza, the conflict has also escalated with the Iran-backed Lebanese Hezbollah and Yemen's Houthi rebels.^{[9][10][7][11][12][13][14][15]}
• GAZA AS AN ELECTION ISSUE: According to Gallup, Americans' views on Israel's military actions in Gaza have shifted since the beginning of the war, with approval dropping from 50% in November 2023 to 42% by June 2024. Divided by party affiliation, 76% of Republicans, 23% of Democrats, and 34% of Independents approved of US actions in June. Pro-Palestine protests sparked by the war have also generated significant controversy, particularly on college campuses — which have included widely publicized clashes between demonstrators and police.^[16][17][18]
• DEMOCRATIC PLEDGES: According to the Brookings Institute, as of July 8, 13% of Democratic congressional candidates supported Israel unconditionally, 17% alongside humanitarian aid to Gaza, and 18% alongside seeking a cease-fire; 7% accused Israel of genocide and 34% had no public position. The Democratic National Committee's (DNC) 2024 draft Party Platform supports a 'durable peace in the Middle East' accompanied by 'regional integration and a negotiated two-state solution.' Kamala Harris recently stated that despite Israel's right to 'go after Hamas,' there had been 'far too many' civilian deaths.^[19][20][21]
• REPUBLICAN PLEDGES: According to the same Brookings study, 49% of Republican candidates supported Israel unconditionally, 1% alongside humanitarian aid for Gaza, 1% alongside calls for a cease-fire, 3% accusing Israel of genocide, and 46% had no comment. The 2024 GOP party platform pledges to 'stand with Israel,' 'seek peace in the Middle East,' and 'rebuild our Alliance Network in the Region to ensure a future of Peace, Stability, and Prosperity.' Donald Trump's campaign website also pledges to 'Deport pro-Hamas radicals and make our college campuses safe and patriotic again.'^{[19][22][23][24]}

Sources: ^[1]NPR Online News, ^[2]ABC News, ^[3]The White House (a), ^[4]U.S. Department of Defense, ^[5]The White House (b), ^[6]Council on Foreign Relations, ^[7]The White House (c), ^[8]Timesofisrael, ^[9]United Nations Population Fund, ^[10]Just Security, ^[11]State, ^[12]The White House (d), ^[13]The White House (e), ^[14]ReliefWeb (a), ^[15]ReliefWeb (b), ^[16]Gallup.com (a), ^[17]Gallup.com (b), ^[18]Associated Press, ^[19]Brookings, ^[20]BBC News, ^[21]Democrats, ^[22]The American Presidency Project, ^[23]Donald J. Trump and ^[24]Donaldjtrump.

Narratives

• Democratic narrative, as provided by Timesofisrael. Kamala Harris recognizes the challenge of uniting the country over the war in Gaza and understands that doing so is a key presidential duty. She has actively engaged with both pro-Israel and pro-Palestine activists, acknowledging the plight of the Palestinian people as well as the need to defeat Hamas and bring home the hostages. In swing states like Michigan, which have significant Jewish and Arab voters, Harris is resisting pressure from vocal critics on either side. If she remains balanced, she will secure broad support, contrasting with Trump's one-sided approach.
• Republican narrative, as provided by Jerusalem Post. Harris is only pretending to be balanced, as proven by her actions. While vice president, she has advocated for a two-state solution without first addressing the threat of Hamas, indulged the false claim of Israeli genocide, and supported the Iran nuclear deal and an 'immediate cease-fire.' On the campaign trail, she has lent far more time to the radical faction of her party, including the anti-Israel 'Squad' within Congress. Trump, in contrast, has consistently supported Israel and the Jewish people, both moving the US embassy to Jerusalem and continuously backing Israel’s defense.
• Progressive narrative, as provided by Responsible Statecraft and Al Jazeera. Kamala Harris has alienated a key voter base by betraying the Uncommitted movement. As the death toll in Gaza exceeds 40K, including many UN aid workers, Harris continues to support Biden's unwavering backing of Israel. If the Democratic Party wants to win, it must stop prioritizing campaign donations from Israel's AIPAC lobby — which allocated $100M to oust progressive candidates — and start listening to the anti-war progressive coalition. Americans are tired of funding genocide, and their voices will be heard at the ballot box if the status quo continues.
• Libertarian narrative, as provided by Chronicles and Cato. You don't have to be a progressive to see that the US government has gone too far in supporting Israel. With $3.8B in annual funding and unwavering support for a war that has killed tens of thousands, it's time for the GOP to heed George Washington’s warning against 'passionate attachments' to foreign nations. Republicans have forgotten this due to both the influential Israel lobby and a misguided interpretation of scripture urging Christians to support modern Israel. Conservatives shouldn't blindly support foreign wars just because their congressmen are bought by lobbyists and are misinterpreting religious texts.

Predictions