US Election: Harris Leads Fox News Forecast

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Facts

  • The latest Fox News Power Rankings presidential forecast shows US Vice Pres. Kamala Harris in the lead for the first time, with 241 electoral votes to former Pres. Donald Trump's projected 219.[1]
  • This comes as Fox News moved Georgia and North Carolina from lean Republican to toss-up, meaning there are now six competitive races — the other four being Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — worth 78 electoral votes.[1]
  • Based on Nate Silver's state polling average as of Thursday, Harris would secure the 270 votes needed to clinch the White House as she currently leads Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nebraska's second district — though the first by only a 0.2% margin.[2][3]
  • Meanwhile, the RealClear Polling average on Thursday showed Trump ahead by five electoral votes, 262 to 257, as he leads in Georgia and North Carolina by 0.3% and 0.1%, respectively. Pennsylvania and its 19 electoral votes remain up for grabs.[4][5]
  • According to national post-debate polls from both Morning Consult and Reuters/Ipsos, Harris has expanded her popular vote lead to five points, as a CNN poll found that nearly two-thirds of debate watchers agreed she had outperformed Trump.[6][7]

Sources: [1]FOX News, [2]Silver Bulletin, [3]270toWin.com (a), [4]RealClear Polling, [5]270toWin.com (b), [6]Forbes and [7]CNN.

Narratives

  • Democratic narrative, as provided by Washington Post, New York Times and MSNBC. Harris brilliantly exposed Trump's worst and most dangerous qualities while also offering the country a bright future under her leadership. She articulated clear policy proposals, and skillfully balanced compassion with pragmatism on sensitive topics, including abortion and foreign policy, to convince undecided voters that she represents a better way forward for the US.
  • Republican narrative, as provided by Federalist, InformationLiberation and Breitbart. Trump was at a disadvantage the whole night because ABC decided to team up with Harris — interrupting and fact-checking him while letting his rival get away with false rhetoric. Somehow Trump overcame those obstacles to dominate the debate — making major points on immigration, the economy, and ending endless wars — leading to a bump for the GOP candidate in key battleground states.

Predictions