US Election Issue: Guns

Facts

• OVERVIEW: The Second Amendment of the US Constitution enshrines the right to 'keep and bear arms.' According to the latest Small Arms Survey data, the US had 393M civilian-owned guns in 2017, with more recent estimates sitting at closer to 500M. The FBI reported about 411.5M federal and state firearm background checks from 1998-2021, with 38.9M in 2021 alone. 153.5K transferrals were denied. According to the University of Chicago, 13M guns were on average sold annually from 2010-2019.^{[1][2][3][4][5][6][7]}
• CURRENT STATE: Gun ownership data is largely based on self-reports. As of July 2024, 42% of adults live in a household with a gun, and 32% own one personally, according to Pew Research. As of 2019, the American Academy of Political and Social Science found that 44% of owned firearms were handguns and 55% were long guns. The CDC reported over 48K firearm-related deaths in 2022, with more than 50% from suicides and over 40% from homicides.^[8][9][10]
• GUNS AS AN ELECTION ISSUE: According to Gallup data, 1% of Americans view guns/gun control as the most important problem facing the US as of July, while Pew Research found that 49% view gun violence as a 'major problem' and 27% as a 'moderately big problem.' Gallup found that 56% want stricter gun laws, 31% want no change, and 12% want more lenient rules. Pew found that 86% of Democrats support stricter laws compared to 28% of Republicans, with 52% believing gun ownership makes society safer.^{[11][12][13][8]}
• DEMOCRATIC PLEDGES: The Democratic Party pledges to impose universal background checks and nationwide red flag laws, ban 'assault weapons' and 'high-capacity magazines,' and remove protection from legal liability for gun manufacturers. It further proposes increased funding for gun violence research. As vice president, Kamala Harris advocated for states to pass red flag laws and supported enhanced background checks for those under 21.^[14][15]
• REPUBLICAN PLEDGES: While the GOP's 2024 platform doesn't specifically address gun policy, it promises to end an alleged 'Assault on American Liberty' and uphold the Constitution. Further, Donald Trump stated on Aug. 17 that he would not support gun confiscations or strict requirements for 'concealed carry permits.' His campaign has also pledged to repeal all Biden administration gun policies.^{[16][17][18][19]}

Sources: ^[1]Smallarmssurvey, ^[2]Fbi, ^[3]Norc, ^[4]ATF, ^[5]Ammo.com, ^[6]NSSF, ^[7]Constitution, ^[8]Pew Research Center (a), ^[9]Journals, ^[10]Firearm Injury and Death Prevention, ^[11]Gallup.com (a), ^[12]Gallup.com (b), ^[13]Pew Research Center (b), ^[14]Democrats, ^[15]The White House, ^[16]The American Presidency Project, ^[17]Youtube, ^[18]Donald J. Trump and ^[19]Politico.

Narratives

• Democratic narrative, as provided by Everytown and The Daily Beast. Kamala Harris has the right approach to guns. Not only would she push for a popular assault weapons ban, but she'd also invest billions in school safety and mental health programs. She envisions a future where students will no longer need post-traumatic stress counseling after weapons of war are removed from the streets and gun purchase loopholes are closed. High-powered guns threaten all American children, and Harris brings a sensible and popular approach to this issue.
• Republican narrative, as provided by Townhall and Nationalreview. Democrats and liberal elites continue preaching about gun bans from behind their heavily armed bodyguards and fortified estates. If they truly cared about protecting children from dangerous criminals, they wouldn't support policies that release offenders back onto the streets. Republicans seek to enforce existing gun laws, strengthen criminal justice systems, and not violate constitutional Second Amendment rights. Donald Trump will ensure that these rights are preserved.

Predictions