US Election Issue: Crime
OVERVIEW: According to data collected by the FBI and Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS), while crime in the US has fluctuated over the years, violent and property crime rates have decreased significantly since the early 1990s, with the violent crime rate falling 49% between 1993 and 2022. Propert...
Facts
- OVERVIEW: According to data collected by the FBI and Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS), while crime in the US has fluctuated over the years, violent and property crime rates have decreased significantly since the early 1990s, with the violent crime rate falling 49% between 1993 and 2022. Property crime remains the most common, sitting at a rate of 1,954.4 per 100K people in 2022 per FBI data, while violent crime was 380.7, down from 387.8 in 2012 and 494.4 in 2002. The CDC reported 24.8K homicide deaths (7.5/100K) in 2022.[1][2][3]
- CURRENT STATE: The FBI says national violent crime decreased by 15.2% from 2023 to 2024, including significant decreases in murder, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault. Violent crime is also down on average in cities of all sizes by roughly 13.4%; and down in metropolitan and non-metropolitan counties by 20% and 17%, respectively. Property crime is down nationwide by 15.1% over that period. For 2024, the three cities with the highest violent crime rates per 100K people are St. Louis, MO (2,082), Detroit, MI (2,057) and Baltimore, MD (2,027).[4][3][5][6]
- CRIME AS AN ELECTION ISSUE: Per Gallup, 3% of Americans consider crime/violence the most important issue as of July. Meanwhile, Pew Research reported in May that 48% of those surveyed (56% of Republicans and 39% of Democrats) saw violent crime as a 'very big problem,' while 36% considered it a 'moderately big problem,' and 15% a 'small problem.' Pew also found that from 2021 through January 2024, Americans who believed Congress and the president should prioritize crime jumped from 47% to 58%.[7][1][8]
- DEMOCRATIC PLEDGES: Democrats pledge to 'fight drug trafficking,' pardon and abolish nonviolent marijuana convictions, reclassify the drug as less dangerous, and help addicts. They want more 'housing, mentorship, job training, and apprenticeship[s]' for prisoners reentering society, and 'alternatives to prison' for juveniles. They would end private prisons and abolish solitary confinement, chokeholds, and restraints for pregnant inmates. They also pledge to keep guns away from domestic abusers.[9]
- REPUBLICAN PLEDGES: The GOP pledges to 'Rebuild Our Cities and Restore Law and Order' by 'replenishing Police Departments, restoring Common Sense Policing, and protecting Officers from frivolous lawsuits.' It promises to resist left-leaning prosecutors and 'compassionately address homelessness to restore order to our streets.' Donald Trump, the party's presidential nominee, has campaigned to impose the death penalty on child traffickers and rapists.[10][11]
Sources: [1]Pew Research Center (a), [2]CDC, [3]Cjis, [4]Federal Bureau of Investigation, [5]My WordPress, [6]Worldpopulationreview, [7]Gallup.com, [8]Pew Research Center (b), [9]Democrats, [10]The American Presidency Project and [11]Associated Press.
Narratives
- Republican narrative, as provided by The Heritage Foundation, FOX News and New York Post. After watching her lenient treatment of murderers as a state prosecutor, as well as her sympathetic attitudes towards criminals during the 2020 protests, it's laughable to claim Harris is tough on crime. Trump, in contrast, will give violent criminals what they deserve. Democrat-run cities are plagued by crime as a result of Harris's preferred policies. Since Democrats won't protect their constituents, it's on Trump to step in and clean up these crime zones once and for all.
- Democratic narrative, as provided by Deccan Herald and CNN. Despite the GOP's best attempts to undermine her, Harris's nuanced approach to criminal justice stems from years of experience dealing with convicted felons like Trump. She believes in keeping violent criminals who don't want to be rehabilitated behind bars, but her career has also proven that rehabilitation policies can be extremely successful. This philosophy has provided results in California and during the Biden admin.
- Progressive narrative, as provided by Vox. While Harris represents America’s marginalized communities well, she needs to be more careful when distinguishing herself from Trump. Instead of pushing a 'prosecutor versus felon' agenda — a phrase historically aimed at jailing people of color — it would be wiser to highlight Trump’s specific history of criminal activity, from abusing women to illegal business practices. Progressive voters will likely hesitate to support a candidate who brags about being a tougher cop than her Republican opponent.
- Conservative narrative, as provided by X. The only way to stop the violent crime epidemic in American cities is to focus on who's committing it. In Republican- and Democrat-run states, violent crime is committed by, and mostly victimizes, majority Black urban communities. A primary reason for this is that 80% of Black children are raised without a dad in the home, leaving them more likely to fall into criminal lifestyles. The politicians running these cities must stop worrying about being labeled racist and start finding solutions to this underlying problem.
