US Economy: Housing Prices Cool at Record Pace

Facts

• According to a new analysis from mortgage data analytics firm Black Knight, the annual rate of US home price appreciation fell from 19.3% to 17.3% in June - the fastest pace on record.¹
• The slowing pace in home values indicates that rising mortgage rates and wider inflation are dampening demand for housing.¹
• Markets seeing the largest drops in home values previously had the highest home prices in the nation. San Jose, Calif. prices dropped 5.1% in the last two months, and Seattle, Wash. dipped by 3.8% in the same period.¹
• Recession fears have also caused anxiety for prospective homebuyers as sales of existing homes have dropped below 2019 levels and sales of new construction homes also declined.²
• Despite the slowdown in the pace, price gains are still strong with the median home price climbing to $416k in June - up 13.4% from the previous year and the higest on record.²
• Last week, the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced a second consecutive 0.75-point hike in its benchmark interest rate in a historic attempt to fight rampant inflation.³

Sources: ¹NBC, ²CNN and ³ITN.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by Washington Post. Since homebuying demand is low right now, it has given industries like homebuilding material suppliers and homebuilders freedom from the overwhelming pandemic-era demand and turbulence that drove up prices. The drop in demand will drop home prices, correcting the market and eventually bringing the US housing market back to normal.
• Narrative B, as provided by New York Post. While it might not be equivalent to the 2008 crash, the US housing market is headed toward a significant decline in both home buying and home construction. Anyone who recently bought a house to beat the Fed interest rate hikes will now be sitting at a loss, and home prices will only drop further, essentially depleting the market.