US Says Ukraine War 'Not a Sprint,' Calls on Allies to 'Dig Deep'

Facts

• At the latest meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, the US-led collection of 50 countries that provide arms to Ukraine, US Defense Sec. Lloyd Austin said in his opening remarks on Thursday that Ukraine 'stands well positioned for the challenges ahead,' but warned the members to 'dig deep' as the war is a 'marathon, not a sprint.'¹
• In the 13th meeting of its kind after Washington set up the 'Contact Group' to streamline weapons shipments to Ukraine last year, Austin said: 'I ask that the members of this Contact Group continue to dig deep to provide Ukraine with the air defense assets and munitions that it so urgently needs to protect its citizens. We'll also continue to adapt our assistance to meet the changing circumstances on the ground in the changing needs of Ukraine's forces.'¹
• Austin's comments preceded a day of private meetings with allies that include Ukrainian defense minister Oleksii Reznikov. Reznikov will reportedly brief the Contact Group on the progress of Ukraine's counteroffensive before later discussing Kyiv's ongoing needs in terms of weaponry and supplies.¹
• However, the message to 'dig deep' was preceded by more somber assessments from Western officials to journalists in recent days. One official told the Guardian that Russia's continued air and artillery superiority meant Ukraine was taking heavy casualties and that progress toward Russia's main line of defense was slow. 'This is incredibly difficult,' the official said. 'They are going against a well-prepared line that the Russians have had months to prepare.'²
• In her latest comments to the press, Hanna Maliar, Ukraine's deputy defense minister, said that Russia increased the intensity of its attacks to hold back the Ukrainian counteroffensive, adding that Ukraine's troops faced dense minefields in the south. 'So it is very hard to advance,' she said. 'Yes, it is possible to do this slowly, if we look at the numbers, but the advance is steady.'³
• Meanwhile, in separate statements, Russia's defense ministry said it repelled all Ukrainian attacks across the Donetsk, southwest Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia front lines over the past day. Russia again claimed that Ukraine sustained heavy losses in manpower and equipment.⁴

Sources: ¹Devdiscourse, ²Guardian, ³Ukrainska Pravda and ⁴TASS.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by BBC News. Ukraine is going up against Russian defensive lines that they've had months to prepare. Generally, the Russians have defended these lines well and the attack has been costly. Nonetheless, Ukraine is continuing to claim ground and make steady advances. This operation is going in the right direction.
• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by TASS. Ukraine has continued to launch waves of attacks at Russia's defensive lines. However, all attacks were repelled and Ukraine suffered heavy losses to personnel and equipment.

Predictions