US Arrests Suspect in Connection to Ukraine Doc Leak

Facts

• On Thursday, the US arrested 21-year-old Air National Guard Jack Teixeira in connection to a leak of dozens of classified US military documents detailing intelligence on the war in Ukraine and other sensitive information. The Massachusetts resident is reportedly due to appear in court Friday.¹
• This follows a Washington Post report that shared details of a conversation with a teenager who frequented Discord — a server popular with gamers — where the information was posted. He described himself as a friend of the suspect who went by "OG" and was reportedly impressed with the information he provided. He said he knew the real identity and location of OG, but added that he wouldn't share it with law enforcement.²
• According to one file, there were nearly 100 special forces personnel from NATO countries operating in Ukraine — 50 of which came from the UK, 17 from Latvia, 15 from France, 14 from the US 14, and one from the Netherlands. The US had a total of 29 Pentagon personnel in Ukraine, in addition to 71 State Dept. employees, according to reporting from DeclassifiedUK.³
• Another document from the US Defense Intelligence Agency forecast that irrespective of Ukrainian or Russian gains, there's unlikely to be a peace agreement in 2023 and that the war will likely drag into next year.⁴
• Elsewhere, Russia's Federal Security Service, the FSB, alleged on Thursday that Ukraine's intelligence service masterminded the blast at a St Petersburg café that killed the Russian military blogger Vladlen Tatarsky and injured dozens more earlier this month. The FSB posted pictures of Ukrainian citizen Yury Denisov, his driving license, and images of him passing through Russian customs, saying he cultivated ties with local opposition groups to carry out the attack.⁵
• Meanwhile, in the latest from Seymour Hersh, the veteran investigative journalist alleged that Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his inner circle have been skimming US taxpayer funds intended for the military to purchase diesel fuel . Furthermore, he claimed that Ukraine was buying the fuel directly from Russia. Citing US intelligence sources, Hersh reported that the CIA estimated around $400M was embezzled from US funds last year alone.⁶
• Further afield, Belarus has extradited Alexei Moskalyov back to Russia — the father was sentenced to two years in prison but fled house arrest prior to his final court date after his 13-year-old daughter drew anti-war pictures in school. He was detained in Belarus two days after fleeing.⁷

Sources: ¹CNN, ²Washington Post (a), ³Declassified Media Ltd, ⁴Washington Post (b), ⁵Ukrainska Pravda, ⁶Seymour Hersh, and ⁷Guardian.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by New York Post. These leaks contain US military secrets that have no business existing in the public domain. Publicizing them damages US national security and that of its allies. The press should do the responsible thing and refrain from reporting on them.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Politico. Whenever there's a leak of classified documents, officials always claim there's a national security risk and that it puts soldiers in harm's way. However, the cat's already out of the bag on this occasion, and the Pentagon should be focused on bringing the alleged perpetrator to justice, not on obstructing the press from doing their jobs.

Predictions