US Applies Visa Restrictions to Nearly 300 Guatemalan Nationals

Facts

• The US Dept. of State announced on Monday that nearly 300 Guatemalan nationals have been subjected to visa restrictions for allegedly undermining democracy and the rule of law in the country to prevent President-elect Bernardo Arévalo from taking office in January. ¹
• Those affected include 100 lawmakers out of Guatemala's 160-seat unicameral Congress, as well as some private sector representatives and their family members. Their names haven't been disclosed due to confidentiality rules under US law.²
• According to the State Department, they were responsible for or complicit in politically targeting opposition groups, intimidating peaceful protesters, conducting raids, tampering with ballot boxes, and removing the immunity of electoral magistrates who certified the election.³
• This comes as public prosecutors stated on Friday that the general elections must be declared "null and void" due to irregularities in the first round in June, prompting UN Human Rights Chief Volker Turk to denounce "persistent and systematic" attempts to undermine the election results while emphasizing the need to respect the will of the people.⁴
• The EU and the Organization of American States have also supported Arévalo, condemning those questioning the results of the vote. These bodies both sent observers to monitor the election and confirmed its adherence to democratic standards.⁵
• Guatemala's escalating political turmoil caused its dollar bonds to lose the most relative to other emerging-market sovereigns on Monday, registering the biggest drop in more than two months. Analysts suggest this is based on fear of Guatemala's potential isolation and instability. ⁶

Sources: ¹CNN, ²Reuters, ³Associated Press, ⁴Al Jazeera, ⁵Voice of America, and ⁶Bloomberg.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by People Dispatch. It's undeniable that a coup d'etat is underway in Guatemala, with prosecutors desperately seeking to unlawfully prevent the presidential inauguration on Jan. 14, 2024, as part of a broader plan to keep their grip on power. People at home, including the electoral court and social movements, as well as international actors have condemned these false claims, stepping in to safeguard democracy there.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by American Wire News. Yet again, the US State Dept. has shown its willingness to install puppet Bernardo Arévalo as president in plain disrespect of Guatemala's sovereignty, as well as its rule of law and institutions. As if assisting a fraud scheme in the 2023 elections wasn't unscrupulous enough, the US now threatens the Central American country with violence to prevent its officials from enforcing the law.
• Nerd narrative, as provided by Metaculus. There's a 21% chance that Guatemala will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.