US Announces 10-Nation Force to Counter Houthi Attacks in Red Sea

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Facts

• US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced on Tuesday in Bahrain the establishment of a 10-nation force, known as Operation Prosperity Guardian, to protect trade in the Red Sea following attacks on shipping lines by Houthi forces in Yemen.¹
• Under the coordination of the existing 39-member Combined Task Force 153 — launched in April 2022 to improve maritime security within the Red Sea, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and the Gulf of Alden — the new coalition comprises Bahrain, Britain, Canada, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles, Spain, and the US.²
• Among the most notable absentees in the effort are regional powers Egypt and Saudi Arabia, which likely refrained from signing up to the coalition due to heightened concerns in the Arab world about the Israel-Hamas war.³
• The Houthis, however, vowed not to halt their military operations unless Israel stops its strikes on Gaza and lifts the blockade on food, fuel, and medicines, even if Washington manages to gather support from the entire world.⁴
• Multiple shipping companies have suspended routes within the Red Sea amid the deteriorating security situation, with oil giant BP announcing a suspension of all shipments through the Suez Canal on Monday, joining the growing list that includes freight giants CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, Maersk, and MSC.⁵
• Houthi forces have launched at least 100 attacks against 12 different commercial and merchant vessels over the past month in the key Red Sea shipping lanes, a level reportedly not seen in at least two generations.⁶

Sources: ¹Associated Press, ²The times of israel, ³Guardian, ⁴Al Jazeera, ⁵CNBC and ⁶CNN.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Haaretz.com. Though there's indeed a risk that a forceful response may escalate regional tensions to the point that Iran and its other proxy groups could engage in the conflict, Houthi rebels have left the US and its allies with very few options to protect commercial shipping. Hopefully, this purely defensive task force and diplomacy will be enough to deter further attacks. Otherwise, a more offensive approach to the Houthis will be required.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Mehr news agency. Yemeni Houthis have carried out military operations against ships bound for the Israeli-occupied territories through the Red Sea in a direct response to the relentless and unlawful Israeli war against the Palestinian people in Gaza. If the US and its allies continue their move towards a coalition response against the Yemeni forces, they should expect both military and prestige defeats.

Predictions