US Airdrops Aid to Gaza, Mediators Rush for Ceasefire Deal

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Facts

  • Three US military planes — coordinating with the Jordanian Air Force — dropped about 38K meals along the Mediterranean coast in southwest Gaza on Saturday. The airdrop was announced on Friday, a day after a deadly incident in which at least 115 Palestinians were killed by crush and Israeli fire.1
  • Meanwhile, talks between the US, Qatar, and Egypt took place in Cairo over the weekend as mediators rush to cement a deal between Israel and Hamas before Ramadan that would see some of the hostages freed in exchange for an extended ceasefire and the release of Palestinian prisoners.2
  • Israel reportedly submitted an approved plan over the weekend, but it has not sent a delegation to Cairo for negotiations. Israel said it would only send its delegation after Hamas provided a full list of all the hostages who are still alive, a request Hamas has reportedly so far ignored.3
  • An unnamed Hamas official told the Wall Street Journal that it is unlikely that a deal will be reached before Ramadan begins on Mar. 10, saying that it was more likely to come by the first weekend after the start of the Islamic holy month as concerns grow that violence in the West Bank and Jerusalem will escalate.4
  • Israeli war cabinet member Benny Gantz, one of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's main political rivals, met with senior US officials in Washington on Monday, including Vice Pres. Kamala Harris. The trip was reportedly not authorized by Netanyahu, and Harris said on Sunday that Israel must allow more aid into Gaza.5
  • Gaza's Health Ministry said last week that the war's official death toll has surpassed 30K Palestinians, most of whom were women and children. The official Israeli death toll on Oct. 7 stands at around 1.2K people (and there are still over 100 hostages being held in the Gaza Strip).6

Sources: 1Associated Press, 2Washington Post, 3FOX News, 4The Times of Israel, 5Al Jazeera and 6The New York Times.

Narratives

  • Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by CNN. Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks from Gaza or elsewhere, and the US is committed to preventing malicious actors from threatening Israel's legitimate concerns. However, the Biden administration is losing its patience with Netanyahu's intransigence. Last week's tragic incident is just another sign that this war needs to wind down, and all of the main actors involved must work toward a more permanent resolution.
  • Pro-Israel narrative, as provided by The Jerusalem Post. Israel will always be thankful for the US' steadfast support, but the Biden administration needs to refrain from tying Israel's hands behind its back. Hamas is simply not interested in negotiating in good faith and has consistently shown its preference for violence. In contrast, Israel has done everything it can to ensure the safety of civilians in a war it did not want. Israel will pursue its goals, which are incredibly popular with its citizens, regardless of whether it annoys Washington or anyone else.
  • Pro-Palestine narrative, as provided by The Nation. As Israel's slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza continues unabated, the Biden administration, increasingly anxious over the upcoming election, has resorted to cheap tactics to deny its support for Israel's brutal campaign. Regardless of how the administration tries to spin it, Biden has armed Israel, given it diplomatic cover, and refused to call for a permanent cease-fire — all of which incentivizes continued bloodshed. Indeed, Israel's war on Gaza would be unsustainable without US support, and Biden should enact concrete policy to stop the violence.

Predictions