Ursula von der Leyen Nominated for Second European Commission Term

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Facts

• At the European Council (EC) meeting in Brussels on Thursday, the European Union's leaders nominated Ursula von der Leyen for another five-year term as head of the European Commission.¹
• Despite the rise of right-wing parties in European Parliament elections earlier this month, the EC's selection reflects continuity in the leadership of a political union that represents nearly 450M Europeans, with centrist pro-EU politicians maintaining the key positions.²
• European Council's support for von der Leyen was not unanimous, according to EU diplomats. Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban voted against her and Italy's Prime Minister Georgia Meloni abstained.³
• The EU leaders' backing does not guarantee the confirmation of von der Leyen's second term. She must still get the support of a majority in the recently elected European Parliament.⁴
• A Parliament vote is expected in mid-July. Von der Leyen is guaranteed the support of the 190-strong European People's Party (EPP) group, but she will require endorsement from other Parliament groupings to reach 361.⁵

Sources: ¹BBC News (a), ²CNBC, ³Reuters, ⁴MSN and ⁵BBC News (b).

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Atlantic Council. When the European Council nominated Ursula von der Leyen for a second term as President of the European Commission, they made a wise choice. Following the impact of the European elections in early June, EU leaders have sent a strong signal of stability. The pro-EU traditionalists on the center-right, center-left, and liberal wings stood their ground against the far right that threatens the political stability of Europe. 
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Euronews. The Council's nomination of von der Leyen is a disgrace. European voters clearly asked the EU to take another path than it has so far. The European leaders ignore the people's will and instead choose von der Leyen for another five-year term as Commission President. This is 'democracy' as defined by the EU. Regardless of what the people say in elections, the elite does what it wants.
• Cynical narrative, as provided by POLITICO. Securing the council's nomination was the easy part, but now Ursula von der Leyen faces the challenge of gaining majority support in an increasingly hostile European Parliament. Some analysts speculate that there could be as much as a 10% defection rate at the time of the July 18 vote in Parliament, which would leave her close to the 361 mark — just enough for approval. In 2019, von der Leyen won by a narrow margin of only 9 votes. This time around, the situation may become more dicey.

Predictions