UN: Myanmar on the Brink of Humanitarian Crisis

Facts

• According to a report published by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs on Monday, Myanmar faces an imminent humanitarian crisis as one-third of its population reportedly needs assistance amid the escalating conflict between the ruling military and ethnic minority fighters.¹
• Furthermore, the UN has urged the international community to prevent the Southeast Asian country from becoming 'a forgotten emergency,' as it seeks to raise nearly $1B in donations next year for 5.3M people identified as priorities for assistance.²
• Meanwhile, Marcoluigi Corsi, the interim humanitarian coordinator for Myanmar, has warned that millions of lives could be endangered if international aid programs remain underfunded. Less than one-third of the required funding has been met this year, leaving an estimated 1.9M people without aid.¹
• This comes as the UN High Commissioner for Refugees reported that, as of Dec. 15, more than 660K people have been displaced across the country since anti-military junta forces launched Operation 1027 in late October. Last November, the number of displaced stood at 335K.³
• Elsewhere, forces from Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army — part of the Three Brotherhood Alliance — have reportedly seized another key border crossing with China, which could bring the opposition a step closer to pushing the junta out of northern Shan State entirely.⁴
• Last week, following China-brokered peace talks, Myanmar's military and several armed groups agreed to de-escalate the conflict with a temporary ceasefire, as well as to maintain the momentum of dialogue.⁵

Sources: ¹Guardian, ²The hindu, ³The irrawaddy, ⁴The diplomat and ⁵Global times.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Washington Post. After nearly three years in power, Myanmar's military junta is finally losing its grip on power and its rationale for governing, as pro-democracy fighters and ethnic rebel groups joined forces to defeat the regime. As mismanaging the junta's collapse could create total bloody chaos, the Biden administration and other international actors must step in to prepare the exiled National Unity Government.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by South china morning post. On top of it being premature to talk about a potential military junta collapse in Myanmar due to the absence of central command in the opposition, such a development would be risky, as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations would likely not be able to advance a contingency plan after failing to implement its Five-Point Consensus. A negotiated solution is the only way out of this crisis.

Predictions