UN: India Set to Become World's Most Populous Country

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Facts

  • According to a report released by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) on Wednesday, India is set to overtake China to become the world's most populous country by mid-2023.1
  • The UNFPA's State of World Population Report estimates India's population at 1.4286B against China's 1.4257B.2
  • The data shows India has a higher fertility rate and a much younger population — with 68% of people falling in the age group of 15 to 64 — while China has an aging workforce and low birth rates.3
  • However, the PRC outpaces India in terms of life expectancy — 82 to 74 years of age for women, and 76 to 71 for men.4
  • This marks the first time India has ranked at the top of the UN list of most populous countries since the UNFPA began collecting population data in 1950.5
  • Meanwhile, India has not conducted a census since 2011 — though its annual population growth has reportedly averaged 1.2% in the past decade — which means there is no recent official data on its population.6

Sources: 1Al Jazeera , 2Outlook India, 3News18 , 4The Siasat Daily, 5Mint, and 6Reuters.

Narratives

  • Narrative A, as provided by The Times of India. Being the world's most populous country does not herald bad news for India. With a younger workforce, the South Asian powerhouse has a huge potential to boost the economy and drive the nation toward progress and innovation. Instead of triggering anxiety or creating alarm, the rising population must symbolize progress, development, and aspirations.
  • Narrative B, as provided by The Economic Times. There are social and economic consequences of becoming the world's most populous nation. Apart from ensuring that comprehensive and equitable services are available to everyone, India needs to keep expanding and create enough employment, housing, and basic amenities to sustain its increasing population. Otherwise, it could just as swiftly become a demographic liability and an environmental and ecological disaster.
  • Narrative C, as provided by United Nations Population Fund. Rather than fixating on the effect of the rising population, India and the world should focus on giving women more power to exercise bodily autonomy to shore up demographic resilience. Adopting policies aimed at raising, lowering, or maintaining fertility rates has the potential to erode women’s rights, which is why we must radically rethink how we talk about and plan for a sustainable future.

Predictions