Ukrainian Troops Withdraw from Avdiivka

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Facts

  • Weeks into his new post, Ukraine's commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi announced that his troops have withdrawn from the Donetsk city of Avdiivka.1
  • 'Based on the operational situation around Avdiivka, in order to avoid encirclement and preserve the lives and health of servicemen, I decided to withdraw our units from the city and move to defence on more favourable lines,' Skyrskyi said in a Facebook post Saturday.2
  • Earlier in the week, US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby warned that Russia could take control of Avdiivka due to Ukraine's shortages in artillery ammunition. The Senate last week passed a spending bill that included $60B for Ukraine, but it is yet to be approved by the GOP-led House.3
  • Russia's capture of Avdiivka marks its largest gain in territory and its biggest battlefield win since it took control of the Donetsk city of Bakhmut in May last year.1
  • This comes as Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy travelled to both Germany and France on Friday, signing long-term security agreements with both countries that included new commitments on military aid.4
  • Germany said it will provide Ukraine with an additional €1.1B ($1.2B) in military support — taking its total spending on Kyiv to $28B ($30.2B), making it the second-largest supporter of Ukraine behind the US. France announced it would send €3B ($3.2B), taking its total spending to €6.8B ($7.2B).4

Sources: 1BBC News, 2The Financial Times, 3Newsweek and 4POLITICO.

Narratives

  • Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Guardian. It's imperative that the US pass the $60B military aid package for Ukraine. It's just as important that European countries plug the spending gap and elevate their commitments. Otherwise, Ukraine will continue to be short of ammunition and key supplies and will face a slow-motion defeat on the battlefield.
  • Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by TASS. Aside from the avoidable loss of Ukrainian territory and men throughout this conflict, Ukraine's counteroffensive has failed and Kyiv is now losing the war. More money for arms will simply bring about more death and destruction. Ukraine would never have fought this war against Russia without US and EU weapons. Now that these weapons are running dry, Ukraine must accept the reality that Russia will never cease its defense of the Donbas or Crimea.

Predictions